My Favorite Chaotic Electoral College Scenario

***Update***

In light of polling which indicates that Florida is falling farther and farther away from Kerry, I've adjusted this scenario to reflect something more likely. It is still my "favorite" Electoral College Scenario."

I happen to hate the Electoral College. I think it is an archaic, anti-majoritarian institution that we would be significantly better off without. After the election, I will likely spend a significant portion of my time updating this site with anti-Electoral College information. For now, however, I will content myself with looking at the most likely scenarios for an Electoral College tie, which I believe is one of the only things that could provoke enough frustration and outrage to force a change. The following scenario is my single favorite scenario for a tie, and I will be hoping beyond hope that this is what we receive on election night.

Note: To demonstrate the likelihood of this scenario occurring, the state abbreviations are color-coded. States listed in blue are currently likely (based on polling data obtained from a variety of sources) to go for Kerry, states in Red are likely to go for Bush, and states in black are currently too close to call.

Kerry/Edwards: CA, CT, DE, HI, IA, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, DC
Total: 265

Bush/Cheney: AL, AK, AZ, AR, FL, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NH, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY
Total: 264

Colorado's Initiative Passes...

Bush Wins Colorado 52-47, splitting Electoral Votes 5-4

Result: 269-269 tie, and a scramble in the Courts to determine whether the Colorado Initiative is legal. If it is...the House decides.

Comment: Some of you out there will undoubtedly question my classification of several states listed above. For instance, Michigan is listed as solid for Kerry and Wisconsin as solid for Bush, just as two examples. This is based on polling; for instance, in Wisconsin Kerry has not led any poll in over a month, and Bush has led anywhere from 3-8 points over that span. Certainly, a state (such as OH) that I have listed as solid could change, but this data reflects my classifications based on recent polling. Is this scenario likely? Probably not...too many specific things need to happen. It is, however, by far my favorite scenario for election day.