This Week's Primaries

I can't say "Tuesday's Primaries" this week, because Tennessee has its primary on Thursday. Since I wanted to cover both in one post, I'm just referring to them this way.

Kansas Governor
Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D) is unopposed in the primaries, and will be watching to see who will face off against her. The Republicans have an incredibly crowded field facing off on Tuesday to determine who her opponent will be. With no runoff in Kansas, the winner need only receive the most votes, rather than having to worry about reaching 50%. The only current office-holder in the race is State Senator Jim Barnett. Also running are Ken Canfield, Rex Crowell, Dennis Hawver, Robin Jennison, Tim Pickel, and Richard Rodewald. I'm going to predict that Barnett wins, but I really have absolutely no basis for that prediction, as I don't have money numbers for these candidates.

Kansas CD 3
Congressman Dennis Moore (D) is unopposed, but there are 4 Republicans fighting for the right to face him. With $309,000 in the bank, Chuck Ahner has to be considered the front runner. He will be facing off against Thomas Scherer, Scott Schwab, and Paul Showen.

Kansas CD 4
Congressman Todd Tiahrt (R) is unopposed, and is watching 4 Democrats beat each other up to face him. For two of them, there is no financial data available, while the other two have made negligible amounts of cash, so again I have no idea who should be considered the front runner. The candidates are Garth McGinn, Marty Mork, Patrick Quaney, and Ronald Voth.

Tennessee Governor
Governor Phil Bredesen (D) faces three primary opponents in John Jay Hooker, Tim Sevier, and Walt Ward. Since Bredesen has a 62% approval rating, I doubt that he has anything at all to worry about in this race.

On the Republican side, State Senator Jim Bryson is the only office-holder running. He faces off against a massive field of opponents, including Mark Albertini, Wayne Bailey, David Farmer, Joe Kirkpatrick, Tim Thomas, and Wayne Young. With no financial data available, I'm again going to predict success for the current office-holder, and project that Bryson will win. As in Kansas, there is no runoff in Tennessee, so the candidates must receive the most votes on Thursday.

Tennessee Senate
With Republican Majority Leader Bill Frist retiring from office (presumably to run for President), there is an interesting race to replace him. On the Republican side, a ton of money has been spent on this race. Bob Corker has over $5 million in his campaign fund, but much of that is presumably his own money. Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary both have over $2 million. Also in the running is Tate Harrison, for whom no financial report is available. It doesn't really matter, since he doesn't have a chance. I think it's a very close three way race, but I'm going to project Hilleary as the winner.

On the Democratic side, Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. is the presumed nominee. He has made over $6 million for this race, and whichever Republican emerges from the thicket will have a significant challenge in November. Ford still has some business to take care of, however, as there are 4 other Democrats vying for a chance to get into the Senate. Gary Davis, John Jay Hooker (the same one running for Governor), Charles Smith, and Alvin Strauss are the other challengers for the race.

Tennessee CD 1
Congressman William Jenkins (R) is retiring, and there are a large number of candidates to replace him. On the Republican side, a ridiculous 13 candidates are running, and the money is widely spread out amongst them. Richard Roberts, with $890,000 in the bank, has to be considered the favorite. With between $200,000 and $406,000 are Richard Venable, Vance Cheek, Jr., David Davis, David Roe, and James Waters. Finally, in the "nothing or very little available" category are Peggy Barnett, Colquitt Brackett, Bill Breeding, Jr., Claude Cox, Jon Grose, Douglas Heinsohn, and Danny Smith. How this many candidates end up running, I have no idea. I assume that if the state party was a bit more disciplined this wouldn't happen.

On the Democratic side, there are 4 challengers. Joel Goodman, an actor, is facing Richard Howell, Rick Trent, and Dennis Whaley. I'll give the edge to the actor, but I really have no idea. The highest amount of cash reported in this race is $6,000 for Howell, so whoever wins is going to lose big to the Republican in November.

Tennessee CD 2
Congressman John Duncan, Jr. (R) faces a pretty paltry challenge from Ralph McGill, who has raised just 1/100th of the cash. Duncan will win easily. On the Democratic side, John Greene faces Bob Scott, with no favorite.

Tennessee CD 3
Congressman Zach Wamp (R) has raised nearly a million dollars, but has to swat away three gnats who are challenging him in this primary: June Griffin, Charles Howard, and Doug Vadagriff. Wamp need not worry. On the other side, Terry Stulce faces Brent Benedict. Stulce has raised $57,000, while Benedict has no financial data available, so I'll give the edge to Stulce.

Tennessee CD 4
Congressman Lincoln Davis (D) faces two minor challengers in this primary: Norma Cartwright and Harvey Howard. Davis will win easily. On the Republican side, Alan Pedigo, Ken Martin, and Don Strong face off. Pedigo has $52,000 in the bank and the other have no available financial data, so I give Pedigo the edge.

Tennessee CD 5
Congressman Jim Cooper (D) faces a minor challenge from Jason Pullias that won't be a problem for him. He will face Republican Thomas Kovach in November.

Tennessee CD 6
Congressman Bart Gordon (D) faces a minor challenge from J. Patrick Lyons that he'll win easily. He will face David Davis (R) in November.

Tennessee CD 7
Congressman Marsha Blackburn does not have an opponent in the primary, and will sit back and watch Randy Morris and Bill Morrison fight for the Democratic nomination.

Tennessee CD 8
Congressman John Tanner (D) has no opponent in the primary, and so will get to relax on Thursday as Republicans Rory Bricco and John Farmer battle for the nomination.

Tennessee CD 9
With Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. (D) giving up this seat to run for Senate, there are a ton of Democrats fighting to replace him. Here are the 15 challengers, in alphabetical order: Jesse Blumenfeld, Julian Bolton, State Senator Steve Cohen, Joe Ford, Jr., Ruben Fort, Lee Harris, Joseph Kyles, Marvell Mitchell, Tyson Pratcher, Ron Redwing, Ed Stanton III, Nikki Tinker, Joe Towns, Jr., Ralph White, and Bill Whitman. Nikki Tinker has made by far the most money, so I'm going to give her the edge.

On the Republican side there are 5 challengers: Derrick Bennett, Rudolph Daniels, Tom Guleff, Cecil Hale, and Hoyt White. White has made the most money, so I'll give him the edge.