An Intriguing Possibility

UPDATE: I'm not the only one discussing this scenario and considering it at least plausible. See a brief discussion of the issue at Talking Points Memo.

Imagine that this scenario comes to pass on election night:

Democrats, needing to gain 6 seats in the Senate to wrest control from the Republicans, win exactly those 6 sits by winning in Montana, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island (and holding off a strong challenge in New Jersey). There is rejoicing throughout the Blue States, as everyone contemplates the narrow 51-49 majority that will be enjoyed starting in January.

And then the other shoe drops. Joe Lieberman, who easily beat Ned Lamont, announces that he cannot justify caucusing with the Democratic Party after they treated him like a leper following his decision to run after losing in the August primary. Instead, he decides to caucus with the Republicans, who have promised him a Committee chairmanship and pride of place as a Republican hero for pulling a reverse Jim Jeffords.

Far fetched? I don't think so. Democrats are leading in each of the six states that they need to take over; Menendez is winning again in New Jersey and seems to have the momentum; Joe Lieberman is clobbering Ned Lamont. I think it is probably that this exact scenario plays out on election night.

The only real question is what Lieberman will chose to do when January rolls around. Harry Reid should read the handwriting on the wall and start making nice with old Joe, or things could start to unravel quickly after election night.