Tie Possibilities

I'm in the midst of compiling some numbers regarding how many likely scenarios there are for an Electoral College tie. I began this process by deciding which states really were worthy of still being considered swing states. I have classified states as follows:

Kerry/Edwards: CA, CT, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME, NJ, NY, RI, VT, WA, DC

Bush/Cheney: AK, AL, AR, AZ, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WY

Toss UP: CO, FL, IA, MI, MN, NH, NM, NV, OH, OR, PA, WI, WV

This classification gives Kerry 183 "sure" votes, and Bush 208 "sure" votes, and leaves 147 votes up for grabs. A tie would require both candidates to receive 269 votes. Electoral splits in Colorado (quite possible), Maine (less possible), and/or Nebraska (not going to happen) could lead to a number of other tie possibilities, but for the moment I am looking only at "pure" strategies for a tie.

So far, I've completed every scenario for a tie in which Bush wins Florida. There are at least 31 of these. If anyone wants to see the scenarios, let me know and I can post them. In the next few days, I will post the most likely of these scenarios.