2008 Des Moines Register Poll

Sitting here about 18 months before the 2008 Iowa Caucuses (they're actually closer than it seems), I don't put a whole lot of faith in polls showing one candidate leading another. That said, it's interesting to see where the early support is, and I have a little more faith in state polls than in national polls.

This Des Moines Register poll is very interesting because of who leads. Hillary Clinton has led virtually every poll on the Democratic side, making it seem that her nomination was inevitable. This poll shows that the Iowa caucuses may be a chink in her armor, and may open the door for more of a free-for-all than is currently anticipated.

Before I go further with that analysis, it's also interesting to note that John Edwards is leading in this poll. Honestly, I would be stunned if Edwards proved himself as a legitimate contender this time around, but it's easy to forget that before he was John Kerry's running-mate, he was doing fairly well in finishing second for the 2004 Democratic nomination. He has the experience of having run before, he has a folksy, Populist sort of charm to him. So when a poll from the first stop in the 2008 election calendar has him leading Hillary Clinton, and wiping out John Kerry and Tom Vilsack (more on this momentarily), it should probably be taken somewhat seriously.

Back to Hillary and why this could be a stumbling block. If you're the frontrunner, you're expected to win everything. It's not fair, but it's true. If Hillary were to come into Iowa with all of the steam, the expectations would be tremendous. Finishing second would be seen as a huge failure for her campaign, and it could cost her support in New Hampshire and the primaries to follow on the first big weekend. This is why it's absurd to have Iowa and New Hampshire first, because they are about as unrepresentative as states can get.

Finally, a note on Vilsack. One poll does not an election make, but this is terrible news for Vilsack, who couldn't finish above 4th in a place where the people know him. Ouch. Tom, you might want to start planning that career in the private sector.