Connecticut Senate

Quinnipiac has released a new poll on the Connecticut Senate race, and it has a surprise for those who thought Arthur Schlesinger won the debate and stirred up the race.

According to Quinnipiac, Lieberman has a 52%-35% lead over Democratic nominee Ned Lamont, with Republican Arthur Schlesinger polling at 6%. This result means that Lieberman has actually gained ground since the debate, which was, according to most of the Connecticut media and left-ish blogs, supposed to have the opposite result. Schlesinger was viewed as feisty and capable - and all those crazy Republicans who have been supporting Lieberman were supposed to suddenly realize the error of their ways and flock back to Schlesinger. Of course, this would have been great news for Ned Lamont, because every vote for Schlesinger is a vote Lieberman didn't get.

One poll doesn't necessarily mean anything, but Q-pac is usually a pretty reliable poll, especially for Connecticut. So why is Lieberman gaining ground? I think part of it is pragmatism, and part of it is resentment against Lamont and the Democratic establishment. I'll start with the resentment first. Lieberman is a popular Senator; he's been working for Connecticut for quite awhile, and they're happy with him. Along comes Ned Lamont, challenging Lieberman for reasons that the average voter just doesn't understand - and he gets support from the far left bloggers and some of the party establishment (mostly in the form of low enthusiasm on their part for Lieberman). I believe that a number of voters in Connecticut are supporting Lieberman just because they think that what Lamont did was unfair - and supported largely by those from outside of Connecticut.

As for pragmatism, this has been discussed by many. The Republicans know that Schlesinger isn't going to win the election. They look at Lamont and Lieberman, and they see a difference. Part of the reason why they see a difference may very well be the unabashed support for Lamont amongst the far left; if Daily Kos is supporting Lamont, there has to be a reason. As a result, even though Lieberman has, in truth, been largely in line with the Democratic Party on the majority of issues, he's been branded by the Left as the enemy. In effect, I think the far left shot itself in the foot on this one by branding Lieberman in such a way that would make him attractive to Republicans.

All of this indicates an easy victory for Lieberman in November, and grave disappointment amongst the far left, will result.