Composition of the 109th House

I've been talking about scenarios which would create an Electoral College tie, but haven't yet mentioned what I think would happen in the event of such a tie. Part of the reason is that the composition of the Hosue of Representatives is a vital piece of the equation, and we don't know for sure what the House will look like as of January.

After looking at some information (especially the great risk ratings that are put together by the New York Times and Congressional Quarterly), it looks like the House will still be safely in Republican hands in 2005. The question, of course, is what the state delegations will look like. In the next week I'll be getting some data out not only regarding the races to watch in the House on November 2, but also on the likely composition of the state delegations.

For now, I'll leave you with this...the current composition of the House is 227-205 in favor of the Republicans, with 2 vacancies and 1 Independent (thank you Vermont). Based on the risk ratings, it looks like Republicans will hold at least a 232-195 edge, with one 5 states too close to call and Bernie Sanders still holding on as an Independent.