Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Early Primary Update

I'm not going to be up late enough to write a full "results" post, but there are some big results that are pretty much in and that I want to highlight.

First, in Rhode Island, Senator Lincoln Chafee appears to have survived his primary challenge against very conservative Cranston Mayor Steven Laffey. With 471 of 515 precincts reporting, Chafee has a little over a 4,000 vote lead, which translates to a 53.7% - 46.3% lead. I think that the difference in this race was Independent voters who approve of Chafee, and who were able to register for the primary and unaffiliate all in one day. Also, I suspect that a number of Republicans suffered "voter's remorse" on Laffey's candidacy, and elected to stick with Chafee as the far more electable candidate. This sets up a very interesting battle between Chafee and Democratic nominee Sheldon Whitehouse. The polling indicates that race is too close to call.

In Maryland, it's still too early to say anything definitive, but with nearly 25% of precincts reporting, Ben Cardin leads Kweisi Mfume 44%-37% in the Democratic Senate primary. Cardin was favored to win, but the effectiveness of the pollsters in measuring African-American voters was questioned coming into the race, and so no one was sure what would be happening tonight. Carding will face Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele in November.

Also in Maryland, embattled Congressman Albert Wynne (D) appears to be poised to hold onto his seat, as he leads opponent Donna Edwards 56%-40% with 21% of precincts reporting.

In a race that has received national attention, but which I have not and will not normally be covering because it is a state legislative race, Minnesota State Senator Paul Koering (R), who came out as a homosexual last year, appears to be on his way to being renominated. With just about 1/3 of precincts reporting, Koering leads challenger Kevin Goedker by a 57%-43% margin. That's not insurmountable, but there's usually not as much variation in an area as small as a State Senate district as there is statewide, so the question of "which precincts are left to report" probably isn't going to swing things.

Elsewhere in Minnesota, the expected Senate and Gubernatorial candidates all survived, although Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Mike Hatch is running only in the mid-70's against Becky Lourey. That probably doesn't bode well for his match-up with Governor Tim Pawlenty in November.

That should whet your appetite for the final master-list of results that I'll (hopefully) put up sometime tomorrow, or Thursday at the latest.

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