Tuesday's Primary

The lone primary on the day after labor day is in Florida. This is a warm-up for next week, when most of the states that haven't yet held primaries will finish up (one notable exception being Hawaii, where there is an intense Senate primary battle developing). Here are the Florida races.

Florida Governor
With Governor Jeb Bush (R) retiring, there is an interesting battle developing on both sides of the political divide to try to replace him. On the Republican side, Attorney General Charlie Crist is the presumed favorite, with Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher in contention. Vernon Palmer and Michael St. Jean are also running, but Crist or Gallagher will be the nominee. For the Democrats, Congressman Jim Davis, III is the most prominent name, with State Senator Rod Smith also running. Non-politicians in the race include Glenn Burkett, Carol Castagnero, and John Crotty. I'll give Davis the edge.

Florida Senate
Senator Bill Nelson (D) is unopposed in the primary. The Republicans are in disarray, with infamous Congressman Katherine Harris leading the polling in this race. Her numbers against Nelson are horrendous, however, and Harris has emerged as a complete whack job, so there is a possibility that support will drift to one of her opponents: Will McBride, Peter Monroe, or LeRoy Collins, Jr. I can't imagine why anyone would vote for Harris, but it sure looks like she's going to win, in spite of everything. Nelson has become one of the safest Senators facing re-election this year thanks to Harris, and that probably isn't going to change even if Harris now loses on Tuesday.

Florida CD 5
Congressman Virginia Brown-Waite (R) is unopposed, but three Democrats are lining up to challenge her. Their names are Richard Penberthy, John T. Russell, and David Werder. None has a significant lead in money (although Werder seems to trail significantly), so I'll give the edge to Penberthy.

Florida CD 8
Congressman Ric Keller (R) has raised $1 million, so I don't think he's that afraid of Elizabeth Doran and her $40,000 war chest; he should cruise to the nomination. On the Democratic side, there are actually some big-money players, as both Charlie Stuart and Alan Grayson have raised over $500,000, and Homer Hartage has raise nearly $150,000. My guess is Stuart will win on Tuesday.

Florida CD 9
Congressman Mike Bilirakis (R) is retiring in November, and there is a two-way race in the Republican camp to replace him. The almost certain nominee is his son, Gus Bilirakis, who has raised $1.8 million. He faces Dave Langheier, who has a repectable but comparatively paltry $150,000 in the bank. The winner will face Democrat Phyllis Busansky and her $817,000 in November.

Florida CD 11
Congressman Jim Davis, III (D) is running for Governor, and five Dems are fighting to replace him in this district. The front runner, with nearly $1 million in the bank, is Kathy Castor. She faces serious challenges from Al Fox, Jr., Les Miller, Jr., and Scott Thomas Farrell (presumably NOT a junior). Mike Steinberg is also running. The Republicans have already settled on candidate Eddie Adams, Jr., but with just $20,000 raised, he doesn't pose much of a threat. The identity of the next Congressman in the Florida 11th will be decided Tuesday.

Florida CD 13
Congressman Katherine Harris (R) is running for the Senate, leading to a crazy scramble amongst Republicans to replace her. With $3.8 million raised, Vern Buchanan is far and away the favorite. George Hudson has taken in $1.18 million himself, and can't be discounted, however. Nancy Detert, Mark Flanagan, and Donna Clarke are also running for the Republican nomination. On the Democratic side, Christine Jennings has over a 4-1 lead in money over Jan Schneider, and should win the nomination.

Florida CD 15
Congressman Dave Weldon (R) is unopposed. His opponent will be either Bob Bowman or John M. Kennedy, neither of whom has raised significant money.

Florida CD 17
Republicans aren't even bothering to contest this district, where Congressman Kendrick Meek (D) faces poorly funded challenger Dufirstson Neree (D). Meek will be renominated easily.

Florida CD 24
Congressman Tom Feeney (R) is unopposed. The Democrats have two choices, Andy Michaud (with $175 K) or Clint Curtis (with $25 K). Michaud will win on Tuesday and lose big in November.