Tuesday's Mega Primary Day

Arizona Governor
Highly popular Governor Janet Napolitano (D) is (wisely) unopposed in this primary. Four Republicans are running for the chance to unseat her: Don Goldwater, businessman Mike Harris, attorney Len Munsil, and Gary Tupper. I haven't seen any polling in this primary, but presume that Goldwater will win because of the name (he's the nephew of Barry Goldwater). I doubt it will matter, however, as Napolitano is popular enough that she should cruise to re-election.

Arizona CD 1
Congressman Rick Renzi (R) is unopposed, but there is a 5 way battle amongst the Democrats to determine his challenger. By far the favorite is Ellen Simon, who has raised over $800,000. None of her opponents has raised even $40,000. For the record, their names are Mike Caccioppoli, Jr., Bob Donahue, Susan Friedman, and Vic McKerlie.

Arizona CD 2
Congressman Trent Franks (R) is unopposed, and three Democrats are fighting for the nomination on the other side. Chat Chatterjee, Gene Scharer, and John Thrasher. I'll split the middle and pick Scharer, but from what I can see there is no favorite.

Arizona CD 3
Congressman John Shadegg (R) is unopposed. Herb Paine and Don Chilton are fighting for the Democratic nomination, and Paine is the marginal favorite.

Arizona CD 7
Congressman Raul Grijalva (D) is unopposed. For the Republicans, Ron Drake and Joseph Sweeney are battling for the nomination, with Drake the likely winner.

Arizona CD 8
Congressman Jim Kolbe (R) is retiring, and that has led to a crazy 11 person field (6 Dems, 5 Reps) bidding to replace him. On the Democratic side, Gabrielle Giffords has over $1 million in the bank and is the putative favorite. Patty Weiss has raised over $400,000 and has a shot. After that, the money falls off precipitously. Bill Johnson ($188,000), Jeff Latas ($87,000), Alex Rodriguez ($42,000), and Francine Shacter ($3,000) are also running for the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side, Steve Huffman has been endorsed by Kolbe, and has raised $671,000, so he is the favorite. The money is widely spread out, however, and Randy Graf ($484,000) and Mike Hellon ($306,000) are both poised to make a solid showing on Tuesday. Frank Antenori and Mike Jenkins have both failed to reach $10,000, so they don't figure to play much of a role in this race.

Delaware Senate
Senator Tom Carper (D) is unopposed, and faces paltry challenges from three Republicans: Christine O'Donnell, Mike Protack, and Jan Ting. Ting has raised the most money, so that's my pick.

Delaware CD 1 (at-large)
Congressman Michael Castle (R) is unopposed. He'll face either Dennis Spivack or Karen Hartley-Nagle in November. Spivack is the favorite, having raised nearly $300,000.

Maryland Senate
This race is ridiculous. Eighteen Democrats and Ten Republicans are battling, but most of those have no chance at all of winning. First, the people who actually have a chance of replacing retiring Senator Paul Sarbanes (D): On the Democratic side, Congressman Ben Cardin has raised $5.5 million, dwarfing the $1.1 million raised by former head of the NAACP Kweisi Mfume. Josh Rales has raised the most money in this race ($5.8 million), but hasn't raised much buzz; I suspect he's largely self funded. Mfume has been polling well, but Cardin has led for most of this race, and with that money edge, Cardin should win on Tuesday. For the Republicans, Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele is the only serious candidate, having raised nearly $5.2 million. Steele is a strong candidate, and it is not out of the realm of possibility that Steele could beat Cardin (or Mfume) in November. Now, to give the rest of the candidates their due, here are the folks who don't have a chance. Democrats: David Dickerson, George English, James Hutchinson, Anthony Jaworski, A. Robert Kaufman, Allan Lichtman, Thomas McCaskill, Dennis Rasmussen, Bob Robinson, Theresa Scaldaferri, Mike Schaefer, Charles Smith, Blaine Taylor, Joseph Werner, Jr., and Lih Young. Republicans: Ray Bly, Earl Gordon, Thomas Hampton, John Kimble, Edward Madej, Daniel Muffoletto, Richard Shawver, Corrogan Vaughn, and Daniel Vovak.

Maryland CD 1
Congressman Wayne Gilchrest (R) is unopposed. Three lightweight challengers are fighting for the right to challenge him: Kostas Alexakis, Jim Corwin, and Christopher Robinson. I'll give Corwin the nod as the favorite.

Maryland CD 2
Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger (D) faces a weak primary challenge from Christopher Boardman that should be no problem. The Republicans have three challengers for the nomination, with Dee Hodges, Jimmy Mathis, and J.D. Urbach running. None is the favorite, but I like Urbach's name so I'll give him the nod as my predicted winner.

Maryland CD 3
With Congressman Ben Cardin (D) running for Senate, there are a tremendous number of challengers for this open seat. On the Democratic side, John Sarbanes (the son of retiring Senator Paul Sarbanes) has raised the most money, with nearly $1 million, and is the favorite to win the nomination. He faces well-funded challengers in Peter Beilenson, Oz Bengur, Paula Hollinger, and Kevin O'Keeffe. Mishonda Baldwin, Andy Barth, and John Rea are also running. For the Republicans, Gary Applebaum has raised just $268,000 but has more money than any of his challengers, and so is the favorite. He has to survive a gauntlet consisting of Bruce Altschuler, Rick Hoover, Eugenia Ordynsky, Scott Smith, Paul Spause, David Trudil, and well-funded John White ($205,000) before he becomes the nominee.

Maryland CD 4
Congressman Albert Wynn (D) faces a challenge from Donna Edwards that has picked up some steam from prominent endorsements and prominent mention on websites like Daily Kos. George McDermott is also running. Wynn will probably win re-election, but this one is not guaranteed, and Edwards may pull off the upset. The Republicans have already selected Michael Starkman as their candidate.

Maryland CD 6
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett, Jr. (R) faces a primary challenge from Joseph Krysztoforski, which Bartlett should win easily. The Democrats will chose between Andrew Duck and Barry Kissin, with Duck the favorite.

Maryland CD 8
Congressman Chris Van Hollen, Jr. (D) faces a weak challenge from Deborah Vollmer that won't be a problem for him. The Republicans have to chose between Daniel Zubairi (the favorite), Gus Alzona, and Jeff Stein.

Minnesota Governor
Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) faces a primary challenge from the more reliably conservative Sue Jeffers, but Pawlenty shouldn't worry; there is no indication that Jeffers candidacy has resonated with nearly enough people to defeat Pawlenty. Governor Tim does have to worry about the man likely to receive the Democratic nomination, however; Attorney General Mike Hatch (D) received his party's endorsement and should cruise to the nomination over Becky Lourey and Ole Savior. Pawlenty is likely to win re-election, but Hatch could present some troubles, and in a state like Minnesota which traditionally favors Dems, a Hatch victory is quite possible in November.

Minnesota Senate
Senator Mark Dayton (D) is retiring, and that's a great thing for his party. Dayton was incredibly unpopular, and probably would have lost a re-election fight. Instead, the Democrats endorsed Amy Klobuchar, who will easily win her primary over Darryl Stanton. Klobuchar has been polling well, putting up solid leads consistently over the Republican Mark Kennedy, who is a virtual lock for his party's nomination. Kennedy has to beat Harold Shudlick and John Uldrich to make it official, but that isn't going to be a problem. Now, he just has to figure out why his campaign hasn't caught on with Minnesota voters.

Minnesota CD 1
Congressman Gil Gutknecth (R) faces a challenge from Gregory Mikkelson that will be no problem for him. He'll face Tim Walz (D) in November.

Minnesota CD 3
Congressman Jim Ramstad (R) is unopposed. Fighting for the right to face him are Wendy Pareene, Kevin Ray Smith, and Gavin Sullivan. None of them is really a "favorite" in this race, but I'll give the edge to Pareene because she filed with the FEC as "Wendy Wilde," and that's just cool.

Minnesota CD 4
Congressman Betty McCollum (D) is unopposed. Her Republican opponent will be either Obi Sium or Jack Shepard. Since Shepard is a fugitive who has been living in Italy since 1982 (yes, you read that correctly), I'm going to assume that the common-sensical people of Minnesota will nominate Obi Sium.

Minnesota CD 5
Congressman Martin Olav Sabo (D) is retiring, and that has resulted in a flood of candidates who have been bottled up since Sabo was first elected in 1978 filing for the election. The party endorsed candidate is Keith Maurice Ellison, who has raised $317,000. Ember Reichgott Junge ($417,927), Mike Erlandson ($308,000), and Paul Ostrow ($184,000) are well positioned to take Ellison on despite the endorsement, and Andrew Favorite, Gregg Iverson, and Patrick Wiles are also contending for the nomination. I'm going to give the edge to Ellison despite Junge's monetary edge. The Republicans have already nominated Alan Fine.

Minnesota CD 7
Congressman Collin Peterson (D) faces a none-too-stiff primary challenge from Erik Thompson, which he'll handle easily. His opponent in November will be Mike Barrett (R).

New Hampshire CD 1
Congressman Jeb Bradley, III (R) faces a weak primary challenge from Michael Callis. The Democrats, meanwhile, have a 5-way fight, with Jim Craig clearly leading the pack and Gary Dodds a sort-of close 2nd. Dave Jarvis, Carol Shea-Porter, and Peter Michael Sullivan are also running, although Sullivan has unofficially withdrawn from the race (he failed to file the proper withdrawal paperwork, so he will still appear on the ballot). Craig should win.

New Hampshire CD 2
Congressman Charles Bass (R) faces 2 challengers that he'll easily dispense with, in Bob Danderson and Mary Maxwell. His Democratic opponent will be Paul Hodes, who with $854,000 has raised more than Congressman Bass by over $150,000.

New York Governor
Governor George Pataki (R) is not running for re-election. The Republicans have selected John Faso to run in his place. On the Democratic side, the party endorsee is Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who is heavily favored to win the election in November. His primary opponent is Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, who had to petition to participate in this primary after failing to receive the party endorsement.

New York Senate
Senator Hillary Clinton (D) faces anti-war primary challenger Jonathan Tasini in this race, and if there was ever a David-Goliath fight, this is it. Clinton has an amazing $35,000,000 raised to this point (gee, think she's running for President in 2008?), while Tasini has $213,000. Umm...yeah, I'm picking Clinton to win here. On the Republican side, John Spencer is the favorite, having received the Republican, Conservative, and Right to Life party endorsements (New York allows cross-endorsements) and having a war chest of $3.9 million. His opponent is Kathleen Troia McFarland, who has a not inconsiderable $1.16 million raised.

New York CD 3
Congressman Peter King (R) faces a weak challenge from Robert Previdi that he'll dispense with easily. Dave Mejias (D) will face him in November.

New York CD 10
Congressman Ed Towns (D) faces challenges from Charles Barron and Roger Leon Green that shouldn't cause him too much trouble. He'll face Jonathan Anderson in November.

New York CD 11
Congressman Major Owens (D) is retiring, and 4 well-funded challengers are vying for the Democratic nomination in his stead. David Yassky ($1.4 million) is in the drivers seat, but Emmanuel Andrews ($533,000), Yvette Clarke ($404,000), and Major Owen's son Chris Owens ($352,000) also have plenty of money. Yassky's large war chest matched against the Owens name is the most interesting battle here, but I think the money will win in this fight. The winner will go on to face Steve Finger (R) in November.

New York CD 17
Congressman Eliot Engel (D) faces a very weak primary challenge from Jessica Flagg that he'll survive easily. His opponent in November will be Jim Faulkner (R).

New York CD 18
Congressman Nita Lowey (D) is unopposed. Lowey's opponent will be either Richard Hoffman (R) or Jim Russell (R), and my money is on Hoffman as the man who picked up the Conservative party endorsement.

New York CD 19
Congressman Sue Kelly (R) is unopposed. Her opponent will be either Judy Aydelott, John Hall, Darren Rigger, or Ben Shuldiner. Aydelott and Hall both have over $600,000 raised, so both are viable candidates; my money is on Hall to win the nomination.

New York CD 21
Congressman Michael McNulty (D) faces a primary challenge from the under-funded Thomas Raleigh. McNulty will win easily, and will face Warren Redlich (R) in November.

Rhode Island Senate
In the biggest race of the day, Senator Lincoln Chafee (R) faces a primary challenge from Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. Laffey and Chafee are neck-and-neck, and in the magnified lens of a primary, either could win. Chafee could easily become the second Senate moderate voice to lose to a more ideological primary challenger this year, following the defeat (sort-of) of Joe Lieberman a month ago. This one is tough to predict, but I'll go on record as saying that Chafee will survive this challenge, since a Laffey win is also a win for the Democrats in November. On the Democratic side, former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, II is the presumptive nominee, with Carl Sheeler and Chris Young challenging him for the seat.

Rhode Island CD 1
Congressman Patrick Kennedy (D) is unopposed. Two candidates with anemic money-raised numbers are running for the right to oppose him in November, as Edmund Leather ($16K) and Jon Scott ($1,550) face off. I guess I'll pick Leather because of the money, but can you really call that a "cash advantage?"

Rhode Island CD 2
Congressman James Langevin (D) faces a well-funded challenger in Jennifer Lawless, who has raised about half as much money as Langevin has. The winner will face Rod Driver (R) in November.

Vermont Senate
Senator Jim Jeffords (I) is retiring at the end of his term. He will almost certainly be replaced in the Senate by long-time Congressman Bernie Sanders (I), who is running for the seat. He's also running for the Democratic nomination, although I presume that even if he wins it he will stay on the ballot as an Independent. His competitors for the Democratic nomination are Larry Drown, Craig Hill, Peter Moss, and Louis Thabault, none of whom have any appreciable chance of winning. On the Republican side, Rich Tarrant has raised over $5 million and should win the primary easily. His main opponent is Greg Parke, with $1.3 million raised. Also running is Cris Ericson, who plans to run as, according to The Green Pages, "an Independent under the ballot line of 'Marijuana'." I'll go out on a limb here and say that Ericson won't be in Congress any time soon.

Vermont CD 1 (At-Large)
With Independent Congressman Bernie Sanders running for Senate, the door is open for a Dem or Rep to win this seat for the first time since 1990, when Sanders was first elected. The Democrats have already nominated State Senate Pro Tem Peter Welch, while the Republicans will have to chose between Martha Rainville and Mark Shepard. Rainville has a substantial lead in cash raised, and should win easily.

Wisconsin Senate
Senator Herb Kohl (D) faces a very weak primary challenge from Ben Masel that he'll win easily. His opponent in November will be Republican Robert Lorge.

Wisconsin CD 1
Congressman Paul Ryan (R) is unopposed. His opponent will be one of the 5 underfunded Democrats running for this race: Don Hall, Mike Hebert, Steven Herr, Ruth Lee Santa Cruz-Bradley, or Jeff Thomas. My money is on Thomas because he's raised the most cash, but with only $20K raised, that really isn't saying much.

Wisconsin CD 3
Congressman Ron Kind (R) faces a weak primary challenge from Charles "Chip" DeNure that he'll win without difficulty. His opponent in November will be Republican Paul Nelson.

Wisconsin CD 7
Congressman David Obey (D) is unopposed. His opponent will likely be Nick Reid (R), who with $134,000 raised is well positioned to beat Jeff Tyberg ($1,751) in the primary.

Wisconsin CD 8
Congressman Mark Green (R) is running for Governor, so this seat is open. John Gard (R) has $1.8 million raised to the $141,000 raised by his opponent, Terri McCormick, and so should win easily. On the Democratic side, Steve Kagen ($1.6 million) and Nancy Nusbaum ($1 million) have both raised substantial sums, and also have to content with Jamie Wall, Jr. ($664,000). Kagen should advance to face Gard in November.