Kerry's VERY Uphill Battle

As I've mentioned before, I want nothing more than an Electoral College tie. In looking at the numerous scenarios in which the race could end in a tie, I've come to a very simple conclusioin: It doesn't matter what the national polls are showing right now...the race is all but over. What is astonishing to me is that I found perfectly credible ways for Bush to win the election even if he were to lose Pennsylvania, Michigan, AND Ohio. He leads in Ohio, is tied in Pennsylvania, and is very close in Michigan. The odds of winning at least one of the three are very high indeed. If he does, I see no way that Kerry will win the election. At this point, something major would need to happen to shift the midwest states that are leaning Bush-wards (Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Missouri, sort-of Minnesota) back to Kerry. Not to mention the bad-for-Kerry news that Maryland, New Jersey, Maine, Oregon, and New Mexico are all threatening to turn for the President.

The upshot of all of this is that Kerry is being forced to fight on his own turf, the equivelant of playing the game right up against his own end zone. A Hail Mary is likely all that can save his campaign; the first debate was a 5-yard rush up the middle.