California Democratic Gubernatorial Primary

This is my last chance before the day of the election to comment on any of tomorrow's Primaries. The race that seems most interesting to me at this moment is the battle to become Arnold's challenger in California. For much of the last year, Phil Angelides, the state Treasurer, has been seen as the likely candidate. However, state Controller Steve Westly has been closing the gap, and had even taken a lead in April. A new Field Poll indicates that his lead is now very narrow.

I don't really have a horse in this race, and I don't know enough about the race to say anything too significant about what a vote for one or the other would mean. In fact, about all I know is from the poll numbers, and what I see is a race where neither candidate is benefitting from any particular demographic. There is a good breakdown in the above poll, and it shows the two running about equal amongst racial, political, and age demographics (there are some confusing mixed messages on age, if you check out the numbers, with older and younger voters favoring Westly, while the 50-64 demo is heavily in favor of Angelides...if anyone has a reason for this, please let me know).

Anyway, it's another good race to watch tomorrow. The biggest reason for me to make this post is to put forward a hypothesis that I'll be testing as the political year goes on. It certainly isn't original, so don't come after me for claiming to come up with something new. I'm looking at races where there was a clear front-runner (leading the race by 7% or more over the next closest candidate) from the period about 12 months before the election, who then sees his poll numbers dwindle in relation to his main opponent starting within 3 months of the election. The hypothesis is that the hard-charging finisher will win most of those races. In other words, the candidate fighting to hang on to their lead will be in trouble. Obviously much needs to be quantified about the actual bounds of the hypothesis, but that's where I'm going to start. Based on this data, I am predicting a Westly victory tomorrow.