Pelosi in Trouble?

Robert Novak suggests today that if the Democrats don't take back the House this year, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi will not retain her position. He further suggests that Dem #2 Steny Hoyer, the seemingly logical choice to become the new Leader, would face a serious challenge from former Clinton staffer Rahm Emmanuel, the current chairman of the DCCC, in the event of a palace coup that ousted Pelosi.

A couple of thoughts on this. First, I've always wondered how Pelosi rose to the position of the Dem leader. She is not that engaging on television, and she is most definitely from the far left of the party. She is the polar opposite of Dick Gephardt, a more moderate Midwesterner who ran the Dems for years before "giving up" his position to concentrate on a Presidential run in 2004. To make matters worse, the Democrats haven't exactly done well under Pelosi, failing to capitalize on a political climate that seems perfectly suited for them.

Rahm Emmanuel is the kind of politician that seems more suited to a leadership position. He is a new face, which makes his potential rise to the primary Minority leadership post in the House so quickly somewhat unexpected, but he has seemingly been effective raising money through the DCCC. There is, however, one major problem with the idea that Emmanuel would be in a position to replace Pelosi following a Dem loss in November.

The DCCC is the body that recruits candidates to run for Congressional seats, and funnels money to the appropriate places. There is a lot of political strategy involved in the decision-making done by the DCCC. While Pelosi would look bad following a loss because she's not an appealing public face for the party, Emmanuel would actually be tainted with the stain of helping to lose an election that should have been a slam dunk. It is hard for me to see why the party would reward Emmanuel for not accomplishing the goal of winning back the House.

As a result, my early guess is that Pelosi would be sacked from the leadership, Emmanuel would be shifted to another position less involved with elections to lick his wounds, and Steny Hoyer or a stealth candidate would emerge as the new Dem leader.