Potential SCOTUS Retirements

I don't intend to cover the Supreme Court in too much detail on this blog, because it's generally beyond the scope of "politics." There is an undeniable element of politics involved, however, simply by virtue of Supreme Court justices being selected and confirmed by the more political branches of government.

Since it's June, the speculation of which justices may be ready to announce their retirement is back. It is severely muted from a year ago, however, since the retirement of Justice O'Connor and the death of Chief Justice Rehnquist during the past year have changed the Court and removed the two most likely retirees.

That doesn't mean a retirement is inconceivable. Justice Stevens has been serving on the Court since 1975, and was named to the Court by Gerald Ford, a Republican. There are reports that his wife is ill and would like him to retire, and he is 86 years old. It is possible that, even though he has become known as the most liberal Justice on the bench since the retirement of liberal stalwarts William Brennan and Thurgood Marshall, he might be interested in allowing a Republican to replace him since that's the party that appointed him in the first place.

There have also been regular whispers for the past several years about Justice Ginsburg, who has battled cancer and is 73 years old. Unlike Stevens, she was named by a Democrat (Bill Clinton), and doesn't appear to have any family pressures upon her to retire. The rumors are more focused on her personal health than on anything else.

I will make the entirely safe prediction that no justice will retire this year. First, it would be a horrible time to do so, with the 2006 election just around the corner. It is highly unlikely that the two parties could cooperate enough to confirm a nominee in time for the next term, and probably not until sometime in January of 2007. That's a long time for the Court to be without a member (although not unprecedented), and it militates towards trying to hold on at least another year.

Further, I discount the talk of Stevens wanting a Republican to name his replacement. It is entirely inconsistent with his views, and the Republican party today is a much less moderate party than the one that bred Gerald Ford. It seems to me that Stevens would like to hold out until June 2009, hoping that a Democrat wins in 2008. Also, unless Ginsburg is actually suffering from an illness now (and there is no indication that this is the case), I don't see how her being a cancer survivor is relevant.

Frankly, the discussion of these justices (not coincidentally the two most liberal justices on the bench) considering retirement now smacks to me of wishful thinking on the part of Conservatives, who after having removed Sandra Day O'Connor can taste the defeat of Roe v. Wade. Expect no retirements this year, or next year, or the year after. If the justices can stay healthy, this is the Court we will have until we elect a new President.