Santorum Closes the Gap

The Dems hope of regaining the Senate require them to pull off a near sweep of the close races, so it's bad news for them when any of the "must-defeat" Republicans starts to pull closer to his Democratic opponent. In Pennsylvania, this is particularly the case with Senator Rick Santorum (R), who has long been one of the top targets for defeat amongst national Democrats. Santorum has trailed by over 10 points almost since Bob Casey, Jr. was announced as his likely opponent, despite (or, this being Pennsylvania, possibly because of) Casey's pro-life abortion stance.

The race was looking like a laugher, much to the delight of the DNC, which was probably liking its figurative chops at the possibility of being able to spend much less on this race than closer polls would warrant. But Santorum, who has long had a reputation for being a strong closer, has already started to narrow the gap, according to the most recent Quinnipiac poll on the race. Check out this write-up about the race on Real Clear Politics for more information.

I still think Casey will win, but it's bad, bad news for Dems that they are going to have to once again treat this as a very close race, spending money here that they could be spending in places like Montana and Missouri. More bad news may be on the way, with potential third-party challenges from the Green Party and possibly an Independant run by a strong pro-choice candidate, which could make life very difficult for Casey.

Incidentally, a friend of mine in Pennsylvania who is connected with the Democratic party is suggesting that the "ground game" being run by Casey is horribly behind where it should be. If that's the case, with a gubernatorial race that doesn't seem all that competitive, getting voters to the polls may be difficult.