Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Best Scenario for Republicans in CT

Without question, the far left has made Ned Lamont. The netroots have actively supported him, and he's become a cause celebre. So...they aren't going to just let "evil" Joe Lieberman run in the general election without giving him quite a fight. If Lieberman wins, the netroots go lick their wounds, and focus their efforts elsewhere. If Lamont wins in a blowout, Lieberman will drop his quixotic campaign, and again, efforts will be focused elsewhere. So what's the best scenario for Republicans?

Clearly it would have Lieberman losing, but not by much. A 3-5% victory would be perfect, because Lieberman would (understandably) stay in the race. As a result, a tremendous amount of time and money would be put into defeating Lieberman in Connecticut, despite that the fact that whether Lieberman or Lamont wins has no bearing on the composition of the Senate. This is a perfect scenario for Republicans; they can focus on strengthening the hands of their most in danger Senators, while Democrats are cannibalizing themselves.

If I were Max Baucus (MT), Rick Santorum (PA), Jim Talent (MO), or Mike DeWine (OH), I would be pulling HARD for a narrow Lamont victory tonight. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that tonight's result, and Lieberman's response to whatever happens, will have an impact in November.

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