Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Mega Primary Results

Arizona Governor
The Goldwater name apparently isn't everything when it comes to Arizona politics. Len Munsil beat out Don Goldwater (nephew of Barry) to win the Republican primary, 49.4% to 40.7%. Munsil will face Janet Napolitano (D) in November.

Arizona CD 1
Ellen Simon (D) justified her status as the favorite by picking up 52.7% of the vote in beating out her 4 opponents. Her next task is to face Congressman Rick Renzi (R) in November.

Arizona CD 2
John Thrasher (D) picked up 46.7%, enough to win the three way race for the Democratic nomination in this district. His opponent will be Congressman Trent Franks (R).

Arizona CD 3
In an unbelievably close race that will certainly be heading to a recount (and which still has 1 polling place left to report), Don Chilton has a 50.1%-49.9% lead. That translates to a whopping 24 votes. In other words, 1 polling place here very well could make the difference. I predicted that Paine would win, and he still might; if the result flips, I'll mention it.

Arizona CD 7
Ron Drake (R) took 59.7% of the vote in beating challenger Joseph Sweeney for the right to face Congressman Raul Grijalva (D) in November.

Arizona CD 8
Randy Graf (R) picked up the nomination in the fight to replace retiring Congressman Jim Kolbe. He is a candidate of the far-right, largely concerned with immigration issues. Democrats are thrilled that he won this race, because it gives them a significantly greater chance of winning this seat than they would have had if Kolbe's preferred successor, Steve Huffman. Graf won the race 43.2% to 37.2%. For the Democrats, Gabrielle Giffords picked up 54.1% of the vote to secure the nomination.

Delaware Senate
Jan Ting (R) won a close race over Michael Protack, 42.5% to 40.1%, for the right to lose to Senator Tom Carper (D) in November. Congratulations, I guess.

Delaware CD 1 (At-Large)
Dennis Spivack (D) easily won the Democratic nomination with 60.3%, and will face Congressman Michael Castle (R) in November.

Maryland Senate
There are still a few precincts left to officially report, but as I mentioned last night, Congressman Ben Cardin (D) beat out Kweisi Mfume 45%-40% to (almost certainly) win the race to replace retiring Senator Paul Sarbanes (D). He will face Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele (R), who racked up 87% of the vote on the Republican side.

Maryland CD 1
My random selection of Jim Corwin (D) as the favorite in this primary proved prescient, as he picked up 44% of the vote and roled to victory. He will face Congressman Wayne Gilchrest (R) in November.

Maryland CD 2
Not sure what happened here, but there was no primary on the Republican side in this race. This probably means that the 3 weak challengers in this race bowed out, because none of them was going to beat Congressman Duth Ruppersberger (D) in November anyway.

Maryland CD 3
It took just 33% of the vote to secure the Democratic nomination in the race to replace Congressman Ben Cardin (D), newly minted Senate candidate. The winner is the son of retiring Senator Paul Sarbanes, John Sarbanes. Peter Beilenson came within 5,000 votes, and picked up 25%, but that was the closest anyone got to Sarbanes. On the Republican side, John White edged out Gary Applebaum by about 1100 votes, or 38%-33%. White has a tough road ahead of him, as this is a heavily Democratic district.

Maryland CD 4
In a race that has narrowed considerably since last night when I first reported on it, Congressman Albert Wynn (D) appears to have held on against challenger Donna Edwards. Last night, he was winning by 16%, but as of now (with 9 precincts left to report), the lead is only 4%, 50%-46%. That translates to less than 3,000 votes, but with only 6% of precincts left to report, that's probably enough to give Wynn the win (no pun intended). Wynn will now go on to face Michael Starkman (R) in November.

Maryland CD 6
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett (R) won his primary against Joseph Krysztoforski 79%-21%. That's probably closer than an incumbent would prefer in a primary, but it's still a solid win. He'll go on to face Andrew Duck (D) in November, after Duck won his primary with 59% of the vote.

Maryland CD 8
So much for being the favorite: Daniel Zubairi (R) was my prediction to win the nomination, but Jeff Stein picked up 46% of the vote and got the win. On the Democratic side, Congressman Chris Van Hollen, Jr. won his primary with 91% of the vote.

Minnesota Governor
Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) didn't even blink in beating challenger Sue Jeffers 89%-11%. Democrat Mike Hatch, however, had a fairly stiff challenge from Becky Lourey, as he received just 73% of the vote to Lourey's 24%. Still, a win's a win, and Hatch now gets his shot at Pawlenty in November.

Minnesota Senate
Two pretty anticlimactic races, as expected winners Mark Kennedy (R) and Amy Klobuchar (D) both breached 90% in winning their respected primaries.

Minnesota CD 1
Congressman Gil Gutknecht (R) picked up 87% of the vote in winning his primary, and will now face Tim Walz (D) in November.

Minnesota CD 3
Wendy Wilde (D) picked up 77% of the vote in rolling to victory, and will now face Congressman Jim Ramstad (R) in November.

Minnesota CD 4
It would have made a great news story, but fugitive Jack Shepard (R) lost his primary battle to party-endorsee Obi Sium, with Sium picking up 64% of the vote. Sium will now face Congressman Betty McCollum (D) in November.

Minnesota CD 5
With 41% of the vote, Keith Ellison (D) beat out a host of challengers to win the Democratic nomination and the chance to replace retiring Congressman Martin Olav Sabo (D). Ellison is now positioned to be the first Muslim Congressman in United States history, and the first African-American Congressman in Minnesota history. Quite a story. To do so, he'll have to beat Republican Alan Fine in November.

Minnesota CD 7
Congressman Collin Peterson (D) easily was renominated by his party, picking up 86% of the vote in beating Erik Thompson. Peterson will face Michael J. Barrett (R) in November.

New Hampshire CD 1
Congressman Jeb Bradley, III (R) won 86% of the vote and was easily renominated. He will face Carol Shea-Porter (D), who rather surprisingly picked up 54% of the vote and easily won out against the much better funded Jim Craig.

New Hampshire CD 2
As expected, Congressman Charles Bass (R) won his 3 way primary challenge with 75% of the vote, and will now face Paul Hodes (D) in November.

New York Governor
File this under "gee, really?": Attorney General Eliott Spitzer picked up 80% of the vote in rolling to the Democratic nomination for Governor. He will face John Faso (R) in November, and is expected to utterly dominate him.

New York Senate
And you can file this one under "uhhhh...duh": Hillary Clinton (D) beat anti-war challenger Jonathan Tasini by the astounding total of 83%-16%. Umm . . . I'd say the Lamont "anti-war voters" phenomenon is . . . how to say this . . . "nonexistant" would be the word I'm looking for. In other words, the Lieberman situation is very much so focused in Connecticut, and is not going to extend to too many other places. On the Republican side, John Spencer picked up 60% of the vote and picked up the nomination. I give him about a 0% chance of upsetting Clinton in November.

New York CD 3
Congressman Peter King (R) picked up 83% of the vote on his way to being renominated, and now will face Dave Mejias (D) in November.

New York CD 10
Congressman Ed Towns (D) faced a surprisingly strong challenge from Charles Barron, and while he won, he only received 46% of the vote. That's a dangerously low number for an incumbent in a primary, but he should still beat Jonathan Anderson (R) in November.

New York CD 11
Forget about money or name recognition: This race resulted in Yvette Clarke winning the 4-way race over money-man David Yassky and the son of retiring Congressman Major Owens, Chris Owens. Clarke picked up just 31% of the vote, but that was 5% more than David Yassky and was more than enough to win the nomination. Clarke will now face Steve Finger (R) in November.

New York CD 17
Congressman Eliot Engel (D) cruised to victory with 82% of the vote, and will now face Jim Faulkner (R) in November.

New York CD 18
Richard Hoffman (R) picked up 52% of the vote and won the nomination, and now goes on to face Congressman Nita Lowey (D) in November.

New York CD 19
John Hall (D) picked up 48% of the vote and won the 4-way race to face Congressman Sue Kelly (R) in November.

New York CD 21
No primary was held, so I presume Congressman Michael McNulty's (D) opponent realized that it was a losing cause and backed out. McNulty will face Warren Redlich (R) in November.

Rhode Island Senate
As I mentioned last night, Senator Lincoln Chafee (R) survived a tough primary challenge from Stephen Laffey, 54%-46%. Chafee now must face Sheldon Whitehouse (D), who won the Democratic primary with 82% of the vote.

Rhode Island CD 1
Jonathan Scott (R) didn't need money to win this primary, as he reported just $1,500 raised. Nevertheless, he picked up 69% of the vote and rolled to victory, and now will face Congressman Patrick Kennedy (D) in November.

Rhode Island CD 2
Congressman James Langevin (D) struggled in his primary against Jennifer Lawless, picking up a disappointing 62% of the vote. Nevertheless, that's enough for the victory, and I doubt that problems in the primary will translate to problems in the general election, where Langevin will face Republicn Rod Driver.

Vermont Senate
So much for worrying about the party . . . longtime Independent Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 95% of the vote. His Republican opponent will be Rich Tarrant, who won 64% of the vote.

Vermont CD 1 (At-Large)
The Republicans have nominated Marth Rainville with 72% of the vote, and her task will be to face Democrat Peter Welch, the State Senate Pro Tem, in November.

Wisconsin Senate
Senator Herb Kohl (D) rolled to victory with 86% of the vote, and will now face Robert Lorge (R) in November, in a race that he should win easily.

Wisconsin CD 1
Jeffrey Thomas picked up just 25% of the vote, but that was enough to win the Democratic nomination in the race for this seat. His opponent in November will be Congressman Paul Ryan (R).

Wisconsin CD 3
Congressman Ron Kind (D) was renominated with 84% of the vote. His opponent will be Republican Paul Nelson (R).

Wisconsin CD 7
Nick Reid (R) picked up the nomination with 59% of the vote. He will face Congressman David Obey (D) in November.

Wisconsin CD 8
John Gard (R) won 68% of the vote and will try to hold onto this seat for the Republicans, as Congressman Mark Green (R) is running for Governor. His opponent will be Steve Kagen (D), who picked up 47% of the vote in beating his 2 opponents.

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