Friday, November 10, 2006

Campaign Leadership

The news today is that RNC Chairman Ken Mehlmen is on his way out, and that Lt. Gov. Michael Steele of Maryland, recently defeated in his bid for the Senate, has been or will soon be offered the job. First, let me say that I was impressed enough by Steele to think that he could beat Representative Ben Cardin in the Maryland Senate race. I was wrong, but I think Steele captured the attention of Republican Party leaders, and this move makes some level of sense.

This news got me thinking about the leadership troika in each party - the heads of the National Committees, the Senate Campaign Committees, and the Congressional Campaign Committees. It's quite clear which of them performed the best in this election cycle, and who left a little something to be desired. Here's the rundown, from worst to first.

Elizabeth Dole - RSCC Chair - F
It's hard to do worse than Elizabeth Dole did in this role. Dole was unable to find engaging candidates to run in several states that should have been competitive (most notably in Florida). More problematic, her fundraising abilities are seemingly subpar, as she raised just $77 million in the 2005-2006 election cycle - dwarfed by the nearly $104 million raised by her counterpart in the DSCC. Dole also is a very poor mouthpiece for Senate Republicans in the media - anyone who saw her on Meet The Press had to be embarrassed by her performance. Dole will absolutely NOT be the RSCC chair for long - 2008 is too important for Republicans as they defend nearly twice as many seats in the Senate. Norm Coleman would be an ideal choice if he wasn't up for re-election in 2008, but he'll need to devote his attention to winning re-election in a very tough climate for Minnesota Republicans. Whoever is the next RSCC chair will need to begin the process of recruiting candidates early, and make sure that the fundraising doesn't get left behind.

Tom Reynolds - RCCC Chair - C
Reynolds did a better job than Dole, $152 million this cycle. He also helped recruit some reasonable candidates - but only for open seats in districts that Republicans already held. There was very little pressure on any Democratic incumbents (and not a single Democratic incumbent lost - which was a bit of history). I suspect that Reynolds will be out of a job soon as well, but he at least deserves a second look due to his fund-raising abilities.

Howard Dean - DNC Chair - C
Dean is lucky that the Democrats won, because if they hadn't he would have been lampooned nationally a second time. His major contribution, and the reason he receives a C rather than a D, is the focus on the so-called 50-state strategy, moving the Democratic Party into competitiveness through a broad swath of the country. As head of the DNC, he had considerable ability to direct money - and he did so on a wide basis in support of the 50SS. Unfortunately, there wasn't a lot of money to direct - the DNC raised just $118 million, compared to the nearly $208 million raised by the RNC. Had a better fundraiser been in control of the DNC, the Democratic victory on Tuesday may have been a tsunami rather than a mere wave. Dean also looks foolish for sparring with Rahm Emanuel, head of the DCCC and one of the Democratic heroes of this election.

Ken Mehlman - RNC Chair - B-
As just mentioned, the man raised a ton-0'-cash. Unfortunately for him, he didn't have the political climate or the candidates to spend it on. Money isn't everything in politics, but it is important. The blame for this loss lies first with the President, second with the scandal-ridden members of the House, third with Karl Rove and his failed run-to-the-base strategy, fourth on the heads of the RCCC and RSCC, and then whatever blame is left could fall to Mehlman.

Charles Schumer - DSCC Chair - A
How do you argue with a strategy that helped the Democrats capture the Senate in a year when they had to win races in Montana, Virginia, and Missouri to do so? Schumer directed his money well, and while increased support may have helped Harold Ford win in Tennessee, that's not certain. Schumer helped recruit candidates and directed money effectively, and he raised about $26 million more than his opposite member in the RSCC. He deserves a great deal of credit for this victory.

Rahm Emanuel - DCCC Chair - A
Had he raised a little more money (he got beat by the RCCC by $45 million dollars) he would have picked up an A+. But Emanuel helped recruit great candidates throughout the country, as victories in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kansas, Minnesota, California, Arizona and elsewhere show. In fact, Emanuel nearly won 6-10 more seats that came close but not close enough (that's where the extra money would have come in handy). He should be a fixture in the House for many years, and as long as he's as active and engaged as he was in this cycle (even challenging Howard Dean when necessary), he should continue to find success as the head of the DCCC.

2 Comments:

At Fri Nov 10, 09:19:00 AM, Blogger Stickeen said...

Hmmm ... I think you're falling for the pundit spin. And the pundits hate Dean.

Emmanuel wasted tons of money on Duckworth, who was not the only "Fighting Dem" loser. Meanwhile, Emmanuel's handpicked candidates in CA-11 and NH-01 were rejected in the primaries by the voters, who went for very liberal candidates. And those candidates went on to win upsets, despite very little support from the DCCC. Really, Emmanuel is the reason the Dems didn't pick up WY-AL for example, because he spent money foolishly.

On the other hand, Dean's 50-state strategy is meant for long-term results. Had Trauner or Grant pulled it off, it would have born immediate results in the House. However, a better indicator of Dean's strategy is state legislatures, where Dems did brilliantly. And Dean's fundraising was fine, by historical measures.

My grades on the Dems (don't care about Repubs)

Dean: A
Schumer: A (but anyone would get an A with Dole as the competition)
Emmanuel: B-

As to Steele, he ran a campaign where he disavowed the Republican Party, and even misleadingly posed as a Democrat. Here's a nice skewering.

 
At Fri Nov 10, 09:54:00 AM, Blogger Stickeen said...

Here's a list of how Emmanuel's candidates did. Pretty mixed bag. Some of these - PA-04, OH-01, IL-06, CT-04, KY-04, NM-01, - are seats Dems probably should have won. Meanwhile, I'll mention 2 more candidates not picked by Emmanuel that pulled off great upsets: Yarmuth in KY-03 and Hall in NY-19. Both very liberal.

Darcy Burner (WA-08) behind in recount
Phyllis Busansky (FL-09) lost
Francine Busby (CA-50) lost
Joe Courtney (CT-02) ahead in recount
John Cranley (OH-01) lost
Jill Derby (NV-02) lost
Tammy Duckworth (IL-06) lost
Brad Ellsworth (IN-08) won - pickup
Diane Farrell (CT-04) lost
Steve Filson (CA-11) ¬ defeated in primary by Jerry McNerney (who beat Pombo!)
Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20) won - pickup
Tessa Hafen (NV-03) lost
Baron Hill (IN-09) won - pickup
Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15) lost
Ron Klein (FL-22) won - pickup
Ken Lucas (KY-04) lost
Patsy Madrid (NM-01) behind in recount
Harry Mitchell (AZ-05) won - pickup
Chris Murphy (CT-05) won - pickup
Lois Murphy (PA-06) lost
Heath Shuler (NC-11) won - pickup
Peter Welch (VT-AL) won – not a pickup

 

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