Giuliani's In (Sort Of)

Rudy Giuliani has filed the paperwork to form a Presidential Exploratory Committee. In other words, he's running for President. It's possible that Giuliani could scoot around the country for a few months, give a few speeches, raise some money, and then decide not to actually make a run. I don't think that's going to happen, however, and his presence in the race should make things interesting. I think that the only chance anyone not named John McCain has of winning the Republican nomination is if Giuliani stays in the race and takes early support away from McCain amongst moderate voters. If Giuliani doesn't run, I think McCain is by far the most likely candidate to emerge from the field. I'll talk more about why later, but suffice it to say that every candidate who has been mentioned on the Republican side has something "wrong" with them - either they are too moderate to pick up the base, or too conservative to get anybody but the base, or *gasp* they're Mormon (that would be Mitt Romney, who may find out whether or not conservative voters require their presidential candidates to be Protestants). Giuliani is, I think, unlikely to win the nomination barring some sort of groundswell in support, but he's still the most important piece of the puzzle because of what his presence on the ballot means. Should be interesting to watch unfold.