New Jersey Senate Race

Something rotten is brewing in Jersey . . . at least if you're a Democrat. This is supposed to be the year that the Dems ride a national wave to take control of the House and the Senate, the year that marks the beginning of the end of the Bush presidency. But just looking at the landscape of the Senate battle, it was clear that things would be far more difficult on that end than they would be on the House end. The Democrats need to gain a total of 6 seats from the Republicans. Obviously, any loss of a seat that they currently control would be devestating for their plans.

That's why the New Jersey race is so worrisome for the Dems, where Republican Thomas Kean, Jr. has opened up a 4-5 point lead over incumbent Robert Menendez. That lead is consistent across numerous polls. Things are starting to get so bad that the New York Observer wrote an article suggesting that Menendez would be dropped before the election could take place. Of course, this isn't unprecendented in New Jersey; just 4 years ago, Robert Torricelli was similarly deep-sixed by Democrats worried that he would lose in November, in favor of once and future Senator Frank Lautenberg. The strategy worked last time, but New Jersey doesn't have a former Senator ready and waiting on ice (so far as I know), so I'm not sure it would work this time.

Kean is winning this race for two reasons: 1.) He's effectively making this a race about local issues, such as corruption in the Jersey government, and 2.) He's got the right last name, being the son of former Governor Thomas Kean. Unless Menendez and Co. can find a way to link Kean arm-in-arm with Bush in the next 9 weeks, the Republicans are going to pick up a seat in a tres unlikely place, and the Democrats will be forced to give up on their dreams of winning the Senate. I'm guessing we won't be seeing a personal appearance of Bush, Cheney, or anyone else from the Administrative branch in this race anytime soon.