Goodbye Mr. Foley

UPDATE: Lest it seem like I was being dismissive by categorizing this as a "minor scandal," let me make it clear that anytime someone flouts the law its serious business. I'm comparing this to situations where Congressmen steal massive sums of money, or engage in other improprieties as such. There is no indication that Foley actually physically abused anyone, only that he made extremely innappropriate remarks and suggestions to at least one, and probably several, underage pages. It's a scandal, yes. He will and should be prosecuted, yes. Much, much worse could have been done. So there ya go; that's why I consider this "minor." Of course, the GOP leadership will probably disagree, as this hot potato appears to be about to go nuclear, and could potentially cost Hastert and Boehner dearly. And now for the original post:

There was a time, I suspect, when Congressmen could get away with "minor scandals" like flirting with age innappropriate pages. But, when you live in the media age, and when you're a Republican who has vehemently denied rumors about being gay, and when the page in question happens to be male . . . well, you ain't going to last long. That's why it's really not a surprise that Foley is no longer a Member of Congress.

What is surprising to me is the speed with which this happened. ABC News just put this information out yesterday (to my knowledge), and it took less than 24 hours for the water to get to hot for Foley. It sounds like there are some rather more serious sexually explicit instant messages that have been sent to current and former pages. Foley's decision to resign so quickly suggests that these aren't made up. Foley has a problem, and it finally caught up to him.

Moving forward, the question is what this will do this November in the election. Foley was cruising to re-election, but now the Republicans will have to come up with a viable candidate on short notice. This seems to be a pretty conservative district, but following a scandal like this the reputation of the party in the area has to be affected. I won't go so far as to predict a Democratic takeover here, but for the first time it seems like a possibility.

Weird story, but sadly one that I doubt is unique; Foley just isn't as good at covering things up, or controlling himself, as the others who inevitably engage in the same sorts of behavior.

Saturday's Primary Results

Hawaii Senate
Senator Daniel Akaka (D) defeated challenger Congressman Ed Case (D) in this primary battle, 55%-45%. I thought it would be closer than this, but the power of a long-term incumbent over a relative newcomer to Congress was evident, and Case's relative conservatism didn't help him as much as he had hoped.

On the Republican side, Jerry Coffee picked up 41% of the vote despite having withdrawn from the race for health reasons. The Republican Party then selected State Representative Cynthia Thielen to replace Coffee, despite Thielen not having been on the ballot. They were free to select a nominee of their choice based on state law, but it made the voting process rather superfluous. Perhaps that explains why only around 25,000 people voted in the Republican primary for the Senate.

Hawaii Governor
Governor Linda Lingle (R) was re-nominated with 97% of the vote. The popular Republican will face Randy Iwase (D) in November, after Iwase picked up 66% of the vote in the Democratic primary. This is going to be an interesting race, because Lingle is a relatively popular Governor, but this is a heavily Democratic state.

Hawaii CD 1
Congressman Neil Abercrombie (D) was re-nominated with 79% of the vote. He will face Richard Hough (R) in November, after Hough beat challenger Mark Terry 57%-43%.

Hawaii CD 2
The race to replace Congressman Ed Case (D), who unsucessfully challenged Senator Daniel Akaka, was extremely close on both sides. For the Dems, Mazie Hirono picked up 21.83% of the vote (24,471 votes) beat out Colleen Hanabusa (21.09% / 23,635 votes). For the Republicans, Bob Hogue beat Quentin Kawananakoa by less than 200 votes (8,409 to 8,220). Either of these races could be subject to recount mania.