Ohio Special Primary, Part Deux

Democrats in Ohio CD 3 voted by a margin of 76%-24% to nominate Richard Chema as a replacement for Stephanie Breslin Studebaker, who won the original primary in May. Chema's next task is to face Congressman Mike Turner (R) in November.

Ohio Special Primary

State Senator Joy Padgett (R) has cruised to victory in today's Special Primary to fill Congressman Bob Ney's place on the November ballot for Ohio's 18th Congressional District. There are still about 1/3 of the precincts left to be counted, but Padgett is running in the 60% range, so she'll be fine.

Tomorrow, Ohio voters in the 3rd Congressional District will select a replacement for the previously nominated Democratic challenger to Congressman Mike Turner, who was Stephanie Breslin Studebaker. Studebaker withdrew from the race after winning the primary in May. The two competitors in this race are John Chema and Charles Sanders, and Chema has an edge in money, so I'll predict victory for him.

New Jersey Senate Race

Something rotten is brewing in Jersey . . . at least if you're a Democrat. This is supposed to be the year that the Dems ride a national wave to take control of the House and the Senate, the year that marks the beginning of the end of the Bush presidency. But just looking at the landscape of the Senate battle, it was clear that things would be far more difficult on that end than they would be on the House end. The Democrats need to gain a total of 6 seats from the Republicans. Obviously, any loss of a seat that they currently control would be devestating for their plans.

That's why the New Jersey race is so worrisome for the Dems, where Republican Thomas Kean, Jr. has opened up a 4-5 point lead over incumbent Robert Menendez. That lead is consistent across numerous polls. Things are starting to get so bad that the New York Observer wrote an article suggesting that Menendez would be dropped before the election could take place. Of course, this isn't unprecendented in New Jersey; just 4 years ago, Robert Torricelli was similarly deep-sixed by Democrats worried that he would lose in November, in favor of once and future Senator Frank Lautenberg. The strategy worked last time, but New Jersey doesn't have a former Senator ready and waiting on ice (so far as I know), so I'm not sure it would work this time.

Kean is winning this race for two reasons: 1.) He's effectively making this a race about local issues, such as corruption in the Jersey government, and 2.) He's got the right last name, being the son of former Governor Thomas Kean. Unless Menendez and Co. can find a way to link Kean arm-in-arm with Bush in the next 9 weeks, the Republicans are going to pick up a seat in a tres unlikely place, and the Democrats will be forced to give up on their dreams of winning the Senate. I'm guessing we won't be seeing a personal appearance of Bush, Cheney, or anyone else from the Administrative branch in this race anytime soon.

Special Primary Tomorrow

Republicans in Ohio have a couple of special primaries coming up in the next few days to replace candidates orginally nominated in May who have subsequently withdrawn. The first is tomorrow, when the replacement for Congressman Bob Ney (R), who is retiring from Congress amidst scandal. The challengers in this race are State Senator Joy Padgett, County Commissioner Ray Feikert, Ralph Applegate, Jerry Firman, and James Harris. Padgett is the front-runner, having received the Republican endorsement.

Mega Primary Results

Arizona Governor
The Goldwater name apparently isn't everything when it comes to Arizona politics. Len Munsil beat out Don Goldwater (nephew of Barry) to win the Republican primary, 49.4% to 40.7%. Munsil will face Janet Napolitano (D) in November.

Arizona CD 1
Ellen Simon (D) justified her status as the favorite by picking up 52.7% of the vote in beating out her 4 opponents. Her next task is to face Congressman Rick Renzi (R) in November.

Arizona CD 2
John Thrasher (D) picked up 46.7%, enough to win the three way race for the Democratic nomination in this district. His opponent will be Congressman Trent Franks (R).

Arizona CD 3
In an unbelievably close race that will certainly be heading to a recount (and which still has 1 polling place left to report), Don Chilton has a 50.1%-49.9% lead. That translates to a whopping 24 votes. In other words, 1 polling place here very well could make the difference. I predicted that Paine would win, and he still might; if the result flips, I'll mention it.

Arizona CD 7
Ron Drake (R) took 59.7% of the vote in beating challenger Joseph Sweeney for the right to face Congressman Raul Grijalva (D) in November.

Arizona CD 8
Randy Graf (R) picked up the nomination in the fight to replace retiring Congressman Jim Kolbe. He is a candidate of the far-right, largely concerned with immigration issues. Democrats are thrilled that he won this race, because it gives them a significantly greater chance of winning this seat than they would have had if Kolbe's preferred successor, Steve Huffman. Graf won the race 43.2% to 37.2%. For the Democrats, Gabrielle Giffords picked up 54.1% of the vote to secure the nomination.

Delaware Senate
Jan Ting (R) won a close race over Michael Protack, 42.5% to 40.1%, for the right to lose to Senator Tom Carper (D) in November. Congratulations, I guess.

Delaware CD 1 (At-Large)
Dennis Spivack (D) easily won the Democratic nomination with 60.3%, and will face Congressman Michael Castle (R) in November.

Maryland Senate
There are still a few precincts left to officially report, but as I mentioned last night, Congressman Ben Cardin (D) beat out Kweisi Mfume 45%-40% to (almost certainly) win the race to replace retiring Senator Paul Sarbanes (D). He will face Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele (R), who racked up 87% of the vote on the Republican side.

Maryland CD 1
My random selection of Jim Corwin (D) as the favorite in this primary proved prescient, as he picked up 44% of the vote and roled to victory. He will face Congressman Wayne Gilchrest (R) in November.

Maryland CD 2
Not sure what happened here, but there was no primary on the Republican side in this race. This probably means that the 3 weak challengers in this race bowed out, because none of them was going to beat Congressman Duth Ruppersberger (D) in November anyway.

Maryland CD 3
It took just 33% of the vote to secure the Democratic nomination in the race to replace Congressman Ben Cardin (D), newly minted Senate candidate. The winner is the son of retiring Senator Paul Sarbanes, John Sarbanes. Peter Beilenson came within 5,000 votes, and picked up 25%, but that was the closest anyone got to Sarbanes. On the Republican side, John White edged out Gary Applebaum by about 1100 votes, or 38%-33%. White has a tough road ahead of him, as this is a heavily Democratic district.

Maryland CD 4
In a race that has narrowed considerably since last night when I first reported on it, Congressman Albert Wynn (D) appears to have held on against challenger Donna Edwards. Last night, he was winning by 16%, but as of now (with 9 precincts left to report), the lead is only 4%, 50%-46%. That translates to less than 3,000 votes, but with only 6% of precincts left to report, that's probably enough to give Wynn the win (no pun intended). Wynn will now go on to face Michael Starkman (R) in November.

Maryland CD 6
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett (R) won his primary against Joseph Krysztoforski 79%-21%. That's probably closer than an incumbent would prefer in a primary, but it's still a solid win. He'll go on to face Andrew Duck (D) in November, after Duck won his primary with 59% of the vote.

Maryland CD 8
So much for being the favorite: Daniel Zubairi (R) was my prediction to win the nomination, but Jeff Stein picked up 46% of the vote and got the win. On the Democratic side, Congressman Chris Van Hollen, Jr. won his primary with 91% of the vote.

Minnesota Governor
Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) didn't even blink in beating challenger Sue Jeffers 89%-11%. Democrat Mike Hatch, however, had a fairly stiff challenge from Becky Lourey, as he received just 73% of the vote to Lourey's 24%. Still, a win's a win, and Hatch now gets his shot at Pawlenty in November.

Minnesota Senate
Two pretty anticlimactic races, as expected winners Mark Kennedy (R) and Amy Klobuchar (D) both breached 90% in winning their respected primaries.

Minnesota CD 1
Congressman Gil Gutknecht (R) picked up 87% of the vote in winning his primary, and will now face Tim Walz (D) in November.

Minnesota CD 3
Wendy Wilde (D) picked up 77% of the vote in rolling to victory, and will now face Congressman Jim Ramstad (R) in November.

Minnesota CD 4
It would have made a great news story, but fugitive Jack Shepard (R) lost his primary battle to party-endorsee Obi Sium, with Sium picking up 64% of the vote. Sium will now face Congressman Betty McCollum (D) in November.

Minnesota CD 5
With 41% of the vote, Keith Ellison (D) beat out a host of challengers to win the Democratic nomination and the chance to replace retiring Congressman Martin Olav Sabo (D). Ellison is now positioned to be the first Muslim Congressman in United States history, and the first African-American Congressman in Minnesota history. Quite a story. To do so, he'll have to beat Republican Alan Fine in November.

Minnesota CD 7
Congressman Collin Peterson (D) easily was renominated by his party, picking up 86% of the vote in beating Erik Thompson. Peterson will face Michael J. Barrett (R) in November.

New Hampshire CD 1
Congressman Jeb Bradley, III (R) won 86% of the vote and was easily renominated. He will face Carol Shea-Porter (D), who rather surprisingly picked up 54% of the vote and easily won out against the much better funded Jim Craig.

New Hampshire CD 2
As expected, Congressman Charles Bass (R) won his 3 way primary challenge with 75% of the vote, and will now face Paul Hodes (D) in November.

New York Governor
File this under "gee, really?": Attorney General Eliott Spitzer picked up 80% of the vote in rolling to the Democratic nomination for Governor. He will face John Faso (R) in November, and is expected to utterly dominate him.

New York Senate
And you can file this one under "uhhhh...duh": Hillary Clinton (D) beat anti-war challenger Jonathan Tasini by the astounding total of 83%-16%. Umm . . . I'd say the Lamont "anti-war voters" phenomenon is . . . how to say this . . . "nonexistant" would be the word I'm looking for. In other words, the Lieberman situation is very much so focused in Connecticut, and is not going to extend to too many other places. On the Republican side, John Spencer picked up 60% of the vote and picked up the nomination. I give him about a 0% chance of upsetting Clinton in November.

New York CD 3
Congressman Peter King (R) picked up 83% of the vote on his way to being renominated, and now will face Dave Mejias (D) in November.

New York CD 10
Congressman Ed Towns (D) faced a surprisingly strong challenge from Charles Barron, and while he won, he only received 46% of the vote. That's a dangerously low number for an incumbent in a primary, but he should still beat Jonathan Anderson (R) in November.

New York CD 11
Forget about money or name recognition: This race resulted in Yvette Clarke winning the 4-way race over money-man David Yassky and the son of retiring Congressman Major Owens, Chris Owens. Clarke picked up just 31% of the vote, but that was 5% more than David Yassky and was more than enough to win the nomination. Clarke will now face Steve Finger (R) in November.

New York CD 17
Congressman Eliot Engel (D) cruised to victory with 82% of the vote, and will now face Jim Faulkner (R) in November.

New York CD 18
Richard Hoffman (R) picked up 52% of the vote and won the nomination, and now goes on to face Congressman Nita Lowey (D) in November.

New York CD 19
John Hall (D) picked up 48% of the vote and won the 4-way race to face Congressman Sue Kelly (R) in November.

New York CD 21
No primary was held, so I presume Congressman Michael McNulty's (D) opponent realized that it was a losing cause and backed out. McNulty will face Warren Redlich (R) in November.

Rhode Island Senate
As I mentioned last night, Senator Lincoln Chafee (R) survived a tough primary challenge from Stephen Laffey, 54%-46%. Chafee now must face Sheldon Whitehouse (D), who won the Democratic primary with 82% of the vote.

Rhode Island CD 1
Jonathan Scott (R) didn't need money to win this primary, as he reported just $1,500 raised. Nevertheless, he picked up 69% of the vote and rolled to victory, and now will face Congressman Patrick Kennedy (D) in November.

Rhode Island CD 2
Congressman James Langevin (D) struggled in his primary against Jennifer Lawless, picking up a disappointing 62% of the vote. Nevertheless, that's enough for the victory, and I doubt that problems in the primary will translate to problems in the general election, where Langevin will face Republicn Rod Driver.

Vermont Senate
So much for worrying about the party . . . longtime Independent Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 95% of the vote. His Republican opponent will be Rich Tarrant, who won 64% of the vote.

Vermont CD 1 (At-Large)
The Republicans have nominated Marth Rainville with 72% of the vote, and her task will be to face Democrat Peter Welch, the State Senate Pro Tem, in November.

Wisconsin Senate
Senator Herb Kohl (D) rolled to victory with 86% of the vote, and will now face Robert Lorge (R) in November, in a race that he should win easily.

Wisconsin CD 1
Jeffrey Thomas picked up just 25% of the vote, but that was enough to win the Democratic nomination in the race for this seat. His opponent in November will be Congressman Paul Ryan (R).

Wisconsin CD 3
Congressman Ron Kind (D) was renominated with 84% of the vote. His opponent will be Republican Paul Nelson (R).

Wisconsin CD 7
Nick Reid (R) picked up the nomination with 59% of the vote. He will face Congressman David Obey (D) in November.

Wisconsin CD 8
John Gard (R) won 68% of the vote and will try to hold onto this seat for the Republicans, as Congressman Mark Green (R) is running for Governor. His opponent will be Steve Kagen (D), who picked up 47% of the vote in beating his 2 opponents.

Early Primary Update

I'm not going to be up late enough to write a full "results" post, but there are some big results that are pretty much in and that I want to highlight.

First, in Rhode Island, Senator Lincoln Chafee appears to have survived his primary challenge against very conservative Cranston Mayor Steven Laffey. With 471 of 515 precincts reporting, Chafee has a little over a 4,000 vote lead, which translates to a 53.7% - 46.3% lead. I think that the difference in this race was Independent voters who approve of Chafee, and who were able to register for the primary and unaffiliate all in one day. Also, I suspect that a number of Republicans suffered "voter's remorse" on Laffey's candidacy, and elected to stick with Chafee as the far more electable candidate. This sets up a very interesting battle between Chafee and Democratic nominee Sheldon Whitehouse. The polling indicates that race is too close to call.

In Maryland, it's still too early to say anything definitive, but with nearly 25% of precincts reporting, Ben Cardin leads Kweisi Mfume 44%-37% in the Democratic Senate primary. Cardin was favored to win, but the effectiveness of the pollsters in measuring African-American voters was questioned coming into the race, and so no one was sure what would be happening tonight. Carding will face Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele in November.

Also in Maryland, embattled Congressman Albert Wynne (D) appears to be poised to hold onto his seat, as he leads opponent Donna Edwards 56%-40% with 21% of precincts reporting.

In a race that has received national attention, but which I have not and will not normally be covering because it is a state legislative race, Minnesota State Senator Paul Koering (R), who came out as a homosexual last year, appears to be on his way to being renominated. With just about 1/3 of precincts reporting, Koering leads challenger Kevin Goedker by a 57%-43% margin. That's not insurmountable, but there's usually not as much variation in an area as small as a State Senate district as there is statewide, so the question of "which precincts are left to report" probably isn't going to swing things.

Elsewhere in Minnesota, the expected Senate and Gubernatorial candidates all survived, although Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Mike Hatch is running only in the mid-70's against Becky Lourey. That probably doesn't bode well for his match-up with Governor Tim Pawlenty in November.

That should whet your appetite for the final master-list of results that I'll (hopefully) put up sometime tomorrow, or Thursday at the latest.

Shoutout to Green Papers

I take the vast majority of my information about the primary and general election matchups from The Green Papers, which is a great resource for this kind of information. I've mentioned them many times before, but what to make it clear that I'm not scrounging for this information on multiple sites. The comments are mine, and I make sure to quote if there is something particularly relevent, but I didn't want to represent this as my own hard work; other people do a much better job with that than I ever could. I strongly recommend The Green Papers for political junkies who want more raw information.

Tuesday's Mega Primary Day

Arizona Governor
Highly popular Governor Janet Napolitano (D) is (wisely) unopposed in this primary. Four Republicans are running for the chance to unseat her: Don Goldwater, businessman Mike Harris, attorney Len Munsil, and Gary Tupper. I haven't seen any polling in this primary, but presume that Goldwater will win because of the name (he's the nephew of Barry Goldwater). I doubt it will matter, however, as Napolitano is popular enough that she should cruise to re-election.

Arizona CD 1
Congressman Rick Renzi (R) is unopposed, but there is a 5 way battle amongst the Democrats to determine his challenger. By far the favorite is Ellen Simon, who has raised over $800,000. None of her opponents has raised even $40,000. For the record, their names are Mike Caccioppoli, Jr., Bob Donahue, Susan Friedman, and Vic McKerlie.

Arizona CD 2
Congressman Trent Franks (R) is unopposed, and three Democrats are fighting for the nomination on the other side. Chat Chatterjee, Gene Scharer, and John Thrasher. I'll split the middle and pick Scharer, but from what I can see there is no favorite.

Arizona CD 3
Congressman John Shadegg (R) is unopposed. Herb Paine and Don Chilton are fighting for the Democratic nomination, and Paine is the marginal favorite.

Arizona CD 7
Congressman Raul Grijalva (D) is unopposed. For the Republicans, Ron Drake and Joseph Sweeney are battling for the nomination, with Drake the likely winner.

Arizona CD 8
Congressman Jim Kolbe (R) is retiring, and that has led to a crazy 11 person field (6 Dems, 5 Reps) bidding to replace him. On the Democratic side, Gabrielle Giffords has over $1 million in the bank and is the putative favorite. Patty Weiss has raised over $400,000 and has a shot. After that, the money falls off precipitously. Bill Johnson ($188,000), Jeff Latas ($87,000), Alex Rodriguez ($42,000), and Francine Shacter ($3,000) are also running for the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side, Steve Huffman has been endorsed by Kolbe, and has raised $671,000, so he is the favorite. The money is widely spread out, however, and Randy Graf ($484,000) and Mike Hellon ($306,000) are both poised to make a solid showing on Tuesday. Frank Antenori and Mike Jenkins have both failed to reach $10,000, so they don't figure to play much of a role in this race.

Delaware Senate
Senator Tom Carper (D) is unopposed, and faces paltry challenges from three Republicans: Christine O'Donnell, Mike Protack, and Jan Ting. Ting has raised the most money, so that's my pick.

Delaware CD 1 (at-large)
Congressman Michael Castle (R) is unopposed. He'll face either Dennis Spivack or Karen Hartley-Nagle in November. Spivack is the favorite, having raised nearly $300,000.

Maryland Senate
This race is ridiculous. Eighteen Democrats and Ten Republicans are battling, but most of those have no chance at all of winning. First, the people who actually have a chance of replacing retiring Senator Paul Sarbanes (D): On the Democratic side, Congressman Ben Cardin has raised $5.5 million, dwarfing the $1.1 million raised by former head of the NAACP Kweisi Mfume. Josh Rales has raised the most money in this race ($5.8 million), but hasn't raised much buzz; I suspect he's largely self funded. Mfume has been polling well, but Cardin has led for most of this race, and with that money edge, Cardin should win on Tuesday. For the Republicans, Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele is the only serious candidate, having raised nearly $5.2 million. Steele is a strong candidate, and it is not out of the realm of possibility that Steele could beat Cardin (or Mfume) in November. Now, to give the rest of the candidates their due, here are the folks who don't have a chance. Democrats: David Dickerson, George English, James Hutchinson, Anthony Jaworski, A. Robert Kaufman, Allan Lichtman, Thomas McCaskill, Dennis Rasmussen, Bob Robinson, Theresa Scaldaferri, Mike Schaefer, Charles Smith, Blaine Taylor, Joseph Werner, Jr., and Lih Young. Republicans: Ray Bly, Earl Gordon, Thomas Hampton, John Kimble, Edward Madej, Daniel Muffoletto, Richard Shawver, Corrogan Vaughn, and Daniel Vovak.

Maryland CD 1
Congressman Wayne Gilchrest (R) is unopposed. Three lightweight challengers are fighting for the right to challenge him: Kostas Alexakis, Jim Corwin, and Christopher Robinson. I'll give Corwin the nod as the favorite.

Maryland CD 2
Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger (D) faces a weak primary challenge from Christopher Boardman that should be no problem. The Republicans have three challengers for the nomination, with Dee Hodges, Jimmy Mathis, and J.D. Urbach running. None is the favorite, but I like Urbach's name so I'll give him the nod as my predicted winner.

Maryland CD 3
With Congressman Ben Cardin (D) running for Senate, there are a tremendous number of challengers for this open seat. On the Democratic side, John Sarbanes (the son of retiring Senator Paul Sarbanes) has raised the most money, with nearly $1 million, and is the favorite to win the nomination. He faces well-funded challengers in Peter Beilenson, Oz Bengur, Paula Hollinger, and Kevin O'Keeffe. Mishonda Baldwin, Andy Barth, and John Rea are also running. For the Republicans, Gary Applebaum has raised just $268,000 but has more money than any of his challengers, and so is the favorite. He has to survive a gauntlet consisting of Bruce Altschuler, Rick Hoover, Eugenia Ordynsky, Scott Smith, Paul Spause, David Trudil, and well-funded John White ($205,000) before he becomes the nominee.

Maryland CD 4
Congressman Albert Wynn (D) faces a challenge from Donna Edwards that has picked up some steam from prominent endorsements and prominent mention on websites like Daily Kos. George McDermott is also running. Wynn will probably win re-election, but this one is not guaranteed, and Edwards may pull off the upset. The Republicans have already selected Michael Starkman as their candidate.

Maryland CD 6
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett, Jr. (R) faces a primary challenge from Joseph Krysztoforski, which Bartlett should win easily. The Democrats will chose between Andrew Duck and Barry Kissin, with Duck the favorite.

Maryland CD 8
Congressman Chris Van Hollen, Jr. (D) faces a weak challenge from Deborah Vollmer that won't be a problem for him. The Republicans have to chose between Daniel Zubairi (the favorite), Gus Alzona, and Jeff Stein.

Minnesota Governor
Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) faces a primary challenge from the more reliably conservative Sue Jeffers, but Pawlenty shouldn't worry; there is no indication that Jeffers candidacy has resonated with nearly enough people to defeat Pawlenty. Governor Tim does have to worry about the man likely to receive the Democratic nomination, however; Attorney General Mike Hatch (D) received his party's endorsement and should cruise to the nomination over Becky Lourey and Ole Savior. Pawlenty is likely to win re-election, but Hatch could present some troubles, and in a state like Minnesota which traditionally favors Dems, a Hatch victory is quite possible in November.

Minnesota Senate
Senator Mark Dayton (D) is retiring, and that's a great thing for his party. Dayton was incredibly unpopular, and probably would have lost a re-election fight. Instead, the Democrats endorsed Amy Klobuchar, who will easily win her primary over Darryl Stanton. Klobuchar has been polling well, putting up solid leads consistently over the Republican Mark Kennedy, who is a virtual lock for his party's nomination. Kennedy has to beat Harold Shudlick and John Uldrich to make it official, but that isn't going to be a problem. Now, he just has to figure out why his campaign hasn't caught on with Minnesota voters.

Minnesota CD 1
Congressman Gil Gutknecth (R) faces a challenge from Gregory Mikkelson that will be no problem for him. He'll face Tim Walz (D) in November.

Minnesota CD 3
Congressman Jim Ramstad (R) is unopposed. Fighting for the right to face him are Wendy Pareene, Kevin Ray Smith, and Gavin Sullivan. None of them is really a "favorite" in this race, but I'll give the edge to Pareene because she filed with the FEC as "Wendy Wilde," and that's just cool.

Minnesota CD 4
Congressman Betty McCollum (D) is unopposed. Her Republican opponent will be either Obi Sium or Jack Shepard. Since Shepard is a fugitive who has been living in Italy since 1982 (yes, you read that correctly), I'm going to assume that the common-sensical people of Minnesota will nominate Obi Sium.

Minnesota CD 5
Congressman Martin Olav Sabo (D) is retiring, and that has resulted in a flood of candidates who have been bottled up since Sabo was first elected in 1978 filing for the election. The party endorsed candidate is Keith Maurice Ellison, who has raised $317,000. Ember Reichgott Junge ($417,927), Mike Erlandson ($308,000), and Paul Ostrow ($184,000) are well positioned to take Ellison on despite the endorsement, and Andrew Favorite, Gregg Iverson, and Patrick Wiles are also contending for the nomination. I'm going to give the edge to Ellison despite Junge's monetary edge. The Republicans have already nominated Alan Fine.

Minnesota CD 7
Congressman Collin Peterson (D) faces a none-too-stiff primary challenge from Erik Thompson, which he'll handle easily. His opponent in November will be Mike Barrett (R).

New Hampshire CD 1
Congressman Jeb Bradley, III (R) faces a weak primary challenge from Michael Callis. The Democrats, meanwhile, have a 5-way fight, with Jim Craig clearly leading the pack and Gary Dodds a sort-of close 2nd. Dave Jarvis, Carol Shea-Porter, and Peter Michael Sullivan are also running, although Sullivan has unofficially withdrawn from the race (he failed to file the proper withdrawal paperwork, so he will still appear on the ballot). Craig should win.

New Hampshire CD 2
Congressman Charles Bass (R) faces 2 challengers that he'll easily dispense with, in Bob Danderson and Mary Maxwell. His Democratic opponent will be Paul Hodes, who with $854,000 has raised more than Congressman Bass by over $150,000.

New York Governor
Governor George Pataki (R) is not running for re-election. The Republicans have selected John Faso to run in his place. On the Democratic side, the party endorsee is Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who is heavily favored to win the election in November. His primary opponent is Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, who had to petition to participate in this primary after failing to receive the party endorsement.

New York Senate
Senator Hillary Clinton (D) faces anti-war primary challenger Jonathan Tasini in this race, and if there was ever a David-Goliath fight, this is it. Clinton has an amazing $35,000,000 raised to this point (gee, think she's running for President in 2008?), while Tasini has $213,000. Umm...yeah, I'm picking Clinton to win here. On the Republican side, John Spencer is the favorite, having received the Republican, Conservative, and Right to Life party endorsements (New York allows cross-endorsements) and having a war chest of $3.9 million. His opponent is Kathleen Troia McFarland, who has a not inconsiderable $1.16 million raised.

New York CD 3
Congressman Peter King (R) faces a weak challenge from Robert Previdi that he'll dispense with easily. Dave Mejias (D) will face him in November.

New York CD 10
Congressman Ed Towns (D) faces challenges from Charles Barron and Roger Leon Green that shouldn't cause him too much trouble. He'll face Jonathan Anderson in November.

New York CD 11
Congressman Major Owens (D) is retiring, and 4 well-funded challengers are vying for the Democratic nomination in his stead. David Yassky ($1.4 million) is in the drivers seat, but Emmanuel Andrews ($533,000), Yvette Clarke ($404,000), and Major Owen's son Chris Owens ($352,000) also have plenty of money. Yassky's large war chest matched against the Owens name is the most interesting battle here, but I think the money will win in this fight. The winner will go on to face Steve Finger (R) in November.

New York CD 17
Congressman Eliot Engel (D) faces a very weak primary challenge from Jessica Flagg that he'll survive easily. His opponent in November will be Jim Faulkner (R).

New York CD 18
Congressman Nita Lowey (D) is unopposed. Lowey's opponent will be either Richard Hoffman (R) or Jim Russell (R), and my money is on Hoffman as the man who picked up the Conservative party endorsement.

New York CD 19
Congressman Sue Kelly (R) is unopposed. Her opponent will be either Judy Aydelott, John Hall, Darren Rigger, or Ben Shuldiner. Aydelott and Hall both have over $600,000 raised, so both are viable candidates; my money is on Hall to win the nomination.

New York CD 21
Congressman Michael McNulty (D) faces a primary challenge from the under-funded Thomas Raleigh. McNulty will win easily, and will face Warren Redlich (R) in November.

Rhode Island Senate
In the biggest race of the day, Senator Lincoln Chafee (R) faces a primary challenge from Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. Laffey and Chafee are neck-and-neck, and in the magnified lens of a primary, either could win. Chafee could easily become the second Senate moderate voice to lose to a more ideological primary challenger this year, following the defeat (sort-of) of Joe Lieberman a month ago. This one is tough to predict, but I'll go on record as saying that Chafee will survive this challenge, since a Laffey win is also a win for the Democrats in November. On the Democratic side, former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, II is the presumptive nominee, with Carl Sheeler and Chris Young challenging him for the seat.

Rhode Island CD 1
Congressman Patrick Kennedy (D) is unopposed. Two candidates with anemic money-raised numbers are running for the right to oppose him in November, as Edmund Leather ($16K) and Jon Scott ($1,550) face off. I guess I'll pick Leather because of the money, but can you really call that a "cash advantage?"

Rhode Island CD 2
Congressman James Langevin (D) faces a well-funded challenger in Jennifer Lawless, who has raised about half as much money as Langevin has. The winner will face Rod Driver (R) in November.

Vermont Senate
Senator Jim Jeffords (I) is retiring at the end of his term. He will almost certainly be replaced in the Senate by long-time Congressman Bernie Sanders (I), who is running for the seat. He's also running for the Democratic nomination, although I presume that even if he wins it he will stay on the ballot as an Independent. His competitors for the Democratic nomination are Larry Drown, Craig Hill, Peter Moss, and Louis Thabault, none of whom have any appreciable chance of winning. On the Republican side, Rich Tarrant has raised over $5 million and should win the primary easily. His main opponent is Greg Parke, with $1.3 million raised. Also running is Cris Ericson, who plans to run as, according to The Green Pages, "an Independent under the ballot line of 'Marijuana'." I'll go out on a limb here and say that Ericson won't be in Congress any time soon.

Vermont CD 1 (At-Large)
With Independent Congressman Bernie Sanders running for Senate, the door is open for a Dem or Rep to win this seat for the first time since 1990, when Sanders was first elected. The Democrats have already nominated State Senate Pro Tem Peter Welch, while the Republicans will have to chose between Martha Rainville and Mark Shepard. Rainville has a substantial lead in cash raised, and should win easily.

Wisconsin Senate
Senator Herb Kohl (D) faces a very weak primary challenge from Ben Masel that he'll win easily. His opponent in November will be Republican Robert Lorge.

Wisconsin CD 1
Congressman Paul Ryan (R) is unopposed. His opponent will be one of the 5 underfunded Democrats running for this race: Don Hall, Mike Hebert, Steven Herr, Ruth Lee Santa Cruz-Bradley, or Jeff Thomas. My money is on Thomas because he's raised the most cash, but with only $20K raised, that really isn't saying much.

Wisconsin CD 3
Congressman Ron Kind (R) faces a weak primary challenge from Charles "Chip" DeNure that he'll win without difficulty. His opponent in November will be Republican Paul Nelson.

Wisconsin CD 7
Congressman David Obey (D) is unopposed. His opponent will likely be Nick Reid (R), who with $134,000 raised is well positioned to beat Jeff Tyberg ($1,751) in the primary.

Wisconsin CD 8
Congressman Mark Green (R) is running for Governor, so this seat is open. John Gard (R) has $1.8 million raised to the $141,000 raised by his opponent, Terri McCormick, and so should win easily. On the Democratic side, Steve Kagen ($1.6 million) and Nancy Nusbaum ($1 million) have both raised substantial sums, and also have to content with Jamie Wall, Jr. ($664,000). Kagen should advance to face Gard in November.