Composition of the 109th House

I've been talking about scenarios which would create an Electoral College tie, but haven't yet mentioned what I think would happen in the event of such a tie. Part of the reason is that the composition of the Hosue of Representatives is a vital piece of the equation, and we don't know for sure what the House will look like as of January.

After looking at some information (especially the great risk ratings that are put together by the New York Times and Congressional Quarterly), it looks like the House will still be safely in Republican hands in 2005. The question, of course, is what the state delegations will look like. In the next week I'll be getting some data out not only regarding the races to watch in the House on November 2, but also on the likely composition of the state delegations.

For now, I'll leave you with this...the current composition of the House is 227-205 in favor of the Republicans, with 2 vacancies and 1 Independent (thank you Vermont). Based on the risk ratings, it looks like Republicans will hold at least a 232-195 edge, with one 5 states too close to call and Bernie Sanders still holding on as an Independent.

Tie Possibilities

I'm in the midst of compiling some numbers regarding how many likely scenarios there are for an Electoral College tie. I began this process by deciding which states really were worthy of still being considered swing states. I have classified states as follows:

Kerry/Edwards: CA, CT, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME, NJ, NY, RI, VT, WA, DC

Bush/Cheney: AK, AL, AR, AZ, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WY

Toss UP: CO, FL, IA, MI, MN, NH, NM, NV, OH, OR, PA, WI, WV

This classification gives Kerry 183 "sure" votes, and Bush 208 "sure" votes, and leaves 147 votes up for grabs. A tie would require both candidates to receive 269 votes. Electoral splits in Colorado (quite possible), Maine (less possible), and/or Nebraska (not going to happen) could lead to a number of other tie possibilities, but for the moment I am looking only at "pure" strategies for a tie.

So far, I've completed every scenario for a tie in which Bush wins Florida. There are at least 31 of these. If anyone wants to see the scenarios, let me know and I can post them. In the next few days, I will post the most likely of these scenarios.

My Favorite Chaotic Electoral College Scenario

***Update***

In light of polling which indicates that Florida is falling farther and farther away from Kerry, I've adjusted this scenario to reflect something more likely. It is still my "favorite" Electoral College Scenario."

I happen to hate the Electoral College. I think it is an archaic, anti-majoritarian institution that we would be significantly better off without. After the election, I will likely spend a significant portion of my time updating this site with anti-Electoral College information. For now, however, I will content myself with looking at the most likely scenarios for an Electoral College tie, which I believe is one of the only things that could provoke enough frustration and outrage to force a change. The following scenario is my single favorite scenario for a tie, and I will be hoping beyond hope that this is what we receive on election night.

Note: To demonstrate the likelihood of this scenario occurring, the state abbreviations are color-coded. States listed in blue are currently likely (based on polling data obtained from a variety of sources) to go for Kerry, states in Red are likely to go for Bush, and states in black are currently too close to call.

Kerry/Edwards: CA, CT, DE, HI, IA, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, DC
Total: 265

Bush/Cheney: AL, AK, AZ, AR, FL, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NH, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY
Total: 264

Colorado's Initiative Passes...

Bush Wins Colorado 52-47, splitting Electoral Votes 5-4

Result: 269-269 tie, and a scramble in the Courts to determine whether the Colorado Initiative is legal. If it is...the House decides.

Comment: Some of you out there will undoubtedly question my classification of several states listed above. For instance, Michigan is listed as solid for Kerry and Wisconsin as solid for Bush, just as two examples. This is based on polling; for instance, in Wisconsin Kerry has not led any poll in over a month, and Bush has led anywhere from 3-8 points over that span. Certainly, a state (such as OH) that I have listed as solid could change, but this data reflects my classifications based on recent polling. Is this scenario likely? Probably not...too many specific things need to happen. It is, however, by far my favorite scenario for election day.

Colorado Ballot Initiative

While Florida was the bugbear of the 2000 battle for the Presidency, this year it may very well be Colorado. Thanks to a ballot initiative being largely run by a group of Colorado Democrats, led by political consultant Rick Ridder, Colorado could find itself splitting it's 9 electoral votes between President Bush and Senator Kerry. In a race expected to be this close, that could be a crucial change. For more on the Colorado Initiative, click here.

UPDATE: A poll conducted by Denver based pollster Floyd Ciruli and conducted from September 14-September 18 found 51% pro, 31% against, and 18% undecided. According to an MSNBC article on the poll, Ciruli thinks this means the initiative is in trouble. I disagree; if there is even marginal support for this among Republicans, I think it will pass. I'll post any more polling data that I find on this subject.

Welcome to the Blog!

This blog, like about a million others, is devoted to the coverage of politics. Unlike more specific (and great) blogs like senate2004 and mysterypollster, however, this page is designed to have more wide-ranging coverage of political issues. When something is done better than I can do it, I will direct you there rather than attempting to redo the work. If you stumble across this page, I hope you find something of interest here. The site should be up and running by the second week of October, so check back if you'd like!