Tuesday's Primary

Just one state has a primary this week, and that's Nevada. Here are the races:

Nevada Senate
Only in Nevada. Senator John Ensign (R) faces a primary challenge against Edward "Fast Eddie" Hamilton. Yes, his nickname is "Fast Eddie." Good lord, what a state. On the Democratic side of things, Jack Carter, the son of former President Jimmie Carter, is the presumptive favorite. His opponent is Ruby Tun.

Nevada Governor
Incumbent Governor Kenny Guinn (R) is term-limited, and so cannot run for re-election. The battle to replace him in his own party features his Lieutenant Governor, Lorriane Hunt, facing off against Congressman Jim Gibbons. Also running are Bob Beers, Melody Damayo, and Stanleigh Lusak. My money is on Gibbons, but the race between him and Hunt should be close.

For the Democrats, there are three people seeking the nomination: Jim Gibson, Leola McConnell, and Dina Titus. There is no front-runner, so I'll go all alphabetical on ya and predict a Gibson victory.

Nevada CD 1
Congressman Shelley Berkley (D) faces an insignificant challenge from Asimo "Silver" Lawlor in this race. Berkley will win easily. On the Republican side, Kenneth Wagner, Russ Mickelson, and Michael Ace Monroe are running to decide who will lose to Berkley in November.

Nevada CD 2
Five Republicans are running to replace Congressman Jim Gibbons (R), who is running for Governor. Several of them have raised significant amounts of money, including the favorite, current Secretary of State Dean Heller, as well as Sharron Angle and Dawn Gibbons, who is Jim Gibbons' wife. Richard Gilster, II and Glenn Thomas are also battling for the spot on the ballot. The Democrats have no need for a primary, having already settled on Jill Derby, who has raised $748,000, enough to position herself as an equal money-wise against her Republican opponent.

Nevada CD 3
Congressman Jon Porter, Sr. (R) is unopposed, and will watch five Democrats battle to face him. The clear favorite is Tessa Hafen, with over $800,000 in the bank. Her four opponents have less than $25,000 between them. Their names are Mark Budetich, Jr., Barry Michaels, Anna Nevenich, and Freddie Warman.

Tuesday's Primary Results

Colorado CD 5
Doug Lamborn won the race to replace outgoing Congressman Joel Hefley (R) in this district, but only narrowly. He beat out Jeff Crank 27%-25%, and the story is that Lamborn picked up the win only after a wave of absentee ballots came in at about 11:00 pm, when Lamborn was trailing Crank by 1500 votes. Read about it here. Lamborn will now go on to face Democrat Jay Fawcett, but it sounds like a Fawcett win is a serious longshot, since this district has never elected a Democrat.

Colorado CD 7
Money spoke in this race as well, with Ed Perlmutter (D) outpacing Peggy Lamm 53%-37% and winning the nomination. He will go on to face Rick O'Donnell (R) in November, in this race to replace gubernatorial candidate Bob Beauprez (R).

Connecticut Senate
As if you didn't know...alright, fine. Lamont over Lieberman 52%-48%. And if you somehow didn't know that, I have no idea how you ended up at my blog.

Connecticut Governor
Connecticut Democrats just don't like the establishment this year. After sending Joe Lieberman a message by nominating Ned Lamont, they ignored the endorsement of the Democratic Party in Connecticut by nominating John DeStefano over Dan Malloy by the whisker-thin margin of 51%-49%. DeStefano now has an extremely uphill battle facing off against the very popular Republican Governor M. Jodi Rell.

Connecticut CD 1
Wow, a party-endorsed candidate actually won a race! Scott MacLean (R) beat out Miriam Masullo 63%-37% to pick up the nomination, and now will go on to lose to...er, I mean, face...Congressman John Larson (D) in November.

Georgia CD 4 (Runoff)
The other race you shouldn't need a reminder of. Crazy Congressman Cynthia McKinney (D) was dethroned last night by Hank Johnson, Jr. by the not-so-close total of 59%-41%. Good bye, Cynthia. Don't let the policemen frisk ya on the way out of your office...

Michigan Senate
Well, money didn't matter as much here. Michael Bouchard (R) had about $1 million less in the bank than did opponent Keith Butler, but won nonetheless. Bouchard now has the task of facing Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) in November, and while Stabenow should win, this might be a fairly close race.

Michigan CD 3
Jim Rinck (D) edged out opponent Pete Hickey, and will be cannon-fodder for Congressman Vernon Ehlers (R) in November.

Michigan CD 7
In the third stunner of the night, Congressman Joe Schwarz (R) lost his primary fight against Tim Walberg, 53%-47%. It will be interesting to see whether Sharon Reiner (D), who picked up 52% of the vote against 3 opponents in the Dem primary, will be able to take out Walberg, who is much more conservative than Schwarz.

Michigan CD 8
Congressman Mike Rogers (R) easily won his primary with 84% of the vote, and now faces Jim Marcinowski (D) in November.

Michigan CD 9
Congressman Joe Knollenberg (R) also won his primary, but received just 69% of the vote against Patricia Godchaux. That's a borderline serious primary challenge. Knollenberg now will have to prove that the 30% of his party who voted against him in this race will come back to him when he faces Nancy Skinner (D) in November.

Michigan CD 10
With 33% of the vote, Robert Denison edged out Rob Casey (who had 31%) to win the Democratic nomination. Denison now has to face Congressman Candice Miller (R) in November.

Missouri Senate
Both Jim Talent (R) and Claire McCaskill (D) easily won their respective primaries. I was a little surprised that McCaskill's opponent, Bill Clinton Young, picked up nearly 20% of the vote, as McCaskill was the clear choice. Despite the surprise, it's still a strong win for McCaskill, and I don't think there is any really bad sign here. Talent, for the record, picked up just under 89%. This is going to be a great race to watch in November, and is a must-win for the Dems if they want to take control of the Senate.

Missouri CD 1
Mark Byrne (R) defied the money and picked up the win, and by a longshot. He picked up 72% of the vote, but that's going to be the highlight of the election season for him, as he now has to face well-funded and popular Congressman William Clay, Jr. (D) in November.

Missouri CD 2
Congressman Todd Akin (R) easily survived his primary by picking up 88% of the vote. His opponent will be George Weber (D), who narrowly beat out his other opponents by receiving about 30% of the vote. John Hogan, who I had suggested was the favorite, finished last. Shows what I know.

Missouri CD 3
Congressman Russ Carnahan (D) received a surprisingly low 76% of the vote in winning his primary, but it's very doubtful that this means anything. He should still easily beat David Bertelsen (R) in November.

Missouri CD 4
Once again, the money deceived me. I said Glenn Conner (R) was the frontrunner, but he lost. At least he finished 2nd, with 27% of the vote. The winner was Jim Noland, who picked up nearly 50% of the vote. His prize is the chance to lose to Congressman Ike Skelton (D) in November.

Missouri CD 7
Congressman Roy Blunt (R), Majority Whip in the House, received 80% of the vote against 3 opponents. He will face Jack Truman (D) in November, after Truman received 46% of the vote against 2 mediocre challengers.

Missouri CD 8
Veronica Hambacker (D) stood up for the "money is victory" crowd by beating her opponents, receiving 40% of the vote. She will now face Congressman Jo Ann Emerson (R) in November.

A Bad Night for Incumbents

I already discussed Joe Lieberman below, but he is not by any means the only sitting politician to be booted out in a primary tonight. Of course, he has other options; the other two big losers tonight do not.

First, in a great result, the people of Georgia's CD 4 have chosen by a margin of 59%-41% to give Cynthia McKinney (D) the boot. She finished at the top of the initial primary fight, but couldn't crack the magical 50% barrier, and is now toast. Congratulations to Hank Johnson, Jr. for finishing strongly and picking up the nomination.

Second, Joe Schwartz (R) in the Michigan CD 7 is also likely to lose tonight, to challenger Tim Walberg. I mentioned yesterday that Walberg seemed particularly well funded, but I hadn't caught the news that Walberg was a really serious challenger. Looks like I missed that one, because Walberg is well on his way to ousting Schwarz.

I'll have a complete right up on the night tomorrow, but tonight was so interesting and unusual that I felt it was necessary to put out the last two posts.

A Few Thoughts on CT

So the race is over, and what I thought to be the most likely result transpired, with Lieberman losing by about 4 points. As expected, Lieberman has already announced that he intends to continue the campaign to hold onto his seat by running as a "petitioning Democrat," or Independent, if you prefer. Daily Kos has declared war, pushing its supporters to contact Democrats (especially Harry Reid) to have them essentially disown Lieberman and fully back Lamont. Things are about to get nasty.

So, my prediction still stands. Lieberman will win in November without too much difficulty. There will be some who voted for him tonight who decide that Lamont is the rightful Democratic nominee, and so switch sides. No one will go from voting for Lamont to Lieberman. The result? Lamont will gain in support amongst Democrats from the primary to the general. However, any Republican with any brains at all will be supporting Lieberman all the way in November, especially considering how incredibly uninspiring the Republican nominee is. Lieberman should be able to put up a solid winning total with those numbers.

This is a huge victory for Republicans, because it is exactly the scenario that they needed to keep Democratic time and money locked up. The big four embattled Republicans are breathing a little bit easier tonight (although they have a ton of work to do regardless). The next three months will be as nasty for Joe Lieberman as any race that I've seen.

A few more predictions: 1.) most of the major Democrats will get solidly behind Lamont, and do their best to help him win in November; 2.) Harry Reid will NOT strip Lieberman of his committee assignments, because Reid is pragmatic enough to realize that that is the one thing that could drive Lieberman to the Republican party (or at least the caucus), and Lieberman is the likely November victor; 3.) Daily Kos and other far-left bloggers will waste so much time on this race that Max Baucus and Jim Talent will wriggle off the hook and win in November. Santorum and DeWine won't be so lucky.

Best Scenario for Republicans in CT

Without question, the far left has made Ned Lamont. The netroots have actively supported him, and he's become a cause celebre. So...they aren't going to just let "evil" Joe Lieberman run in the general election without giving him quite a fight. If Lieberman wins, the netroots go lick their wounds, and focus their efforts elsewhere. If Lamont wins in a blowout, Lieberman will drop his quixotic campaign, and again, efforts will be focused elsewhere. So what's the best scenario for Republicans?

Clearly it would have Lieberman losing, but not by much. A 3-5% victory would be perfect, because Lieberman would (understandably) stay in the race. As a result, a tremendous amount of time and money would be put into defeating Lieberman in Connecticut, despite that the fact that whether Lieberman or Lamont wins has no bearing on the composition of the Senate. This is a perfect scenario for Republicans; they can focus on strengthening the hands of their most in danger Senators, while Democrats are cannibalizing themselves.

If I were Max Baucus (MT), Rick Santorum (PA), Jim Talent (MO), or Mike DeWine (OH), I would be pulling HARD for a narrow Lamont victory tonight. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that tonight's result, and Lieberman's response to whatever happens, will have an impact in November.

Tuesday's Primaries

It's a pretty big day for primaries tomorrow, with the big one being in Connecticut. That's where all of the media attention will be tomorrow, but there is a lot of other action going on. Here's the rundown.

Colorado CD 5
With Congressman Joel Hefley (R) stepping down, 6 Republicans are vying for the chance to win the seat. Doug Lamborn has raised the most money, with $411,323 in the bank. He received 40% of the vote at the GOP convention, which was not the most; Jeff Crank received 46% and has raised nearly $250,000 and so has to be considered a serious challenger. Duncan Bremer, Bentley Rayburn, Lionel Rivera, and John Anderson are also running.

The Demoocrats have already put up Jay Fawcett, who will be waiting patiently to find out his opponent.

Colorado CD 7
Congressman Bob Beauprez (R) is running for Governor, and so his seat is open. Rick O'Donnell is the sole Republican in the race. He will face one of three Democrats: Ed Perlmutter, Peggy Lamm, or Herb Rubenstein. Perlmutter has raised over $1 million, while Lamm has raised $700,000 and Rubenstein is at $200,000, so Perlmutter has to be considered the favorite.

Connecticut Senate
Otherwise known as The Big One. The Republicans have nominated Alan Schlesinger already, although there is an issue about whether he'll remain in the race, as the GOP has asked him to step down in favor of Jack Orchulli. However, it is the Democrats who will be in action tomorrow, with embattled Senator Joe Lieberman facing Ned Lamont. Lieberman has over $3.5 million more in the bank than Lamont, but this race is going to be extremely close. Lieberman had been trailing in recent polls, but reports indicate he has pulled back into a statistical tie with Lamont, so tomorrow is going to be very, very interesting.

Connecticut Governor
Governor M. Jodi Rell (R) does not have a challenger in the primary, and so can sit back and watch Dan Malloy and John DeStefano, Jr. face off for the Democratic nomination. Malloy has the party endorsement, and should win the race.

Connecticut CD 1
Congressman John Larson (D) is unopposed, while the Republicans will have to choose between Scott MacLean (the party endorsee) and Miriam Masullo. Neither has a chance against Larson in November.

Georgia CD 4 (Runoff)
In another of the major races taking place tomorrow, we will find out whether Congressman Cynthia McKinney (D) can hold onto her seat against challenger Hank Johnson, Jr. For the record, I think McKinney is toast, and the polling suggests the same. The winner will face Catherine Davis (R) in November.

Michigan Senate
Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) is unopposed, but the battle to determine her challenger will be interesting, with Keith Butler (who has raised nearly $3 million this year) facing off against Mike Bouchard (with around $2 million in the bank). Butler should win, and might make it close against Stabenow in November. This is a seat that is critical for the Democrats; they can't afford to lose seemingly safe seats if they have any hope of taking over the Senate this year.

Michigan CD 3
Congressman Vernon Ehlers (R) is unopposed, and 2 Democrats are fighting to challenge him in November. Pete Hickey and Jim Rinck are running for that chance, but neither has raised much money; Rinck has only $6,000 in the bank, and Hickey seems to have even less. A pretty meaningless primary all-in-all.

Michigan CD 7
Congressman Joe Schwarz (R) will have to fend off the fairly well-funded Tim Walberg to get back on the ballot this year. Walberg has over $600,000 in his campaign fund, but Schwarz has over $1.3 million. Schwarz should win pretty easily.

On the Democratic side, four challengers face off, none of whom is a real favorite. Sharon Renier, Fred Strack, Jr., Daryl Campbell, and Chuck Ream will fight it out.

Michigan CD 8
Congressman Mike Rogers (R) has to swat aside Patrick Flynn before he gets a chance to take on Jim Marcinkowski (D) in November. That shouldn't be a real challenge for him, as Flynn has raised just $3,000 to Rogers $1 million.

Michigan CD 9
Congressman Joe Knollenberg (R) faces Patricia Godchaux in this year's primary, with the winner facing Nancy Skinner (D) in November. Knollenberg has nearly $2 million to play with, while Godchaux has about $450,000. That's not bad for a primary challenger, but Knollenberg shouldn't have anything to worry about in the primary or in the general.

Michigan CD 10
Congressman Candice Miller (R) is unopposed, while the Democrats have 4 people running for a spot on the ballot, none of whom is very inspiring. Anthony America, Bob Casey, Robert Denison, and Paul Kuligowski will battle it out; my money is on Casey, but I have no real justification for that pick.

Missouri Senate
Senator Jim Talent (R) has raised nearly $10 million, but has to beat out 4 wannabe Senators to get back on the ballot in November. The cannon-fodder will be Scott Babbitt, Roxie Fausnaught, Isaiah Hair, Jr. , and Joyce Lea.

For the Democrats, State Auditor Claire McCaskill is the nominee in all reality, with $4.5 million raised. Before it's official, however, she has to beat out Bill Clinton Young in the primary. Is there any question about whether this schlub added the "Clinton" to his name as a ballot gimmick? My apologies if that isn't the case, but seriously, what are the odds? Can't wait for this race in November.

Missouri CD 1
Congressman William Clay, Jr. (D) is unopposed this year, and will be watching 3 Republicans fight for the right to take him on: Leslie La Vantres Farr, II, Mark Joseph Byrne, and Lou Mansfield. Farr is the favorite, with about $100,000 in the bank.

Missouri CD 2
Congressman William Todd Akin (R) should knock around challenger Sherman Parker in the primary, and will go on to face one of four Democrats in November: John Hogan, Charles Karam, Rich Lesh, and George Weber. The favorite is probably Hogan.

Missouri CD 3
Congressman Russ Carnahan (D) will easily beat challenger Jim Frisella tomorrow, on the way to demolishing David Bertelsen (R) in November.

Missouri CD 4
Congressman Ike Skelton (D) is unopposed, while 4 Republicans face off to challenger him. Glenn Conner is the clear frontrunner with $344,000 in the bank compared to little or nothing to the other three candidates. For the record, their names are Jim Noland, Jr. , Jeff Parnell, and Lloyd Sanders, Sr.

Missouri CD 7
Congressman Roy Blunt (R), the Majority Whip in the House, has 3 minor challengers to face off against in Bernard Kennetz, Jr., Clendon Kinder, and Midge Potts. When he's done wiping the floor with them, he'll face off against one of three uninspiring Democrats in Charles Christrup, Ron Lapham, and Jack Truman.

Missouri CD 8
Congressman Jo Ann Emerson (R) is unopposed, and will face one of three Democrats in November: Veronica Hambacker (the favorite, with around $20,000 in the bank), Gene Curtis, or Earl Durnell.

Abramoff Claims Another Victim

This time it's Bob Ney of Ohio.

So far, this thing hasn't broken as big as some had expected, or as Democrats had hoped. There's still time for that to happen, however. For the record, that's 3 corrupt Republicans out of Congress this year, and 1 corrupt Democrat probably on the way out.

Daily Connecticut...er...Kos

I've mentioned Daily Kos before on this blog, and I expect that most anyone who wanders by here has at least checked it out at some point. After all, if you believe Markos Moulitsas, Daily Kos founder, the site is pretty much the heartbeat of the real Democratic Party.

The problem is, the site has worked itself into a frenzy on the Joe Lieberman situation. I was just over there, at 4:00 PM MDT, and the first 5 articles are either directly or indirectly involved with the Lieberman/Lamont battle which takes place on Tuesday. Now, I agree that this is a monumental primary in term of providing some sort of measure for whether the netroots can actually affect real elections. However, Kos is supposed to be a clearinghouse for races across the country and policy issues affecting virtually everything. Instead, we're treated to rehashes of arguments that center around one of two themes: 1.) Lieberman (and anyone who supports him) is an idiot, and the evidence is "X", or 2.) Lamont is the most brilliant politician ever, and clearly has the support of the people in Connecticut.

I'll believe it when I see it. I am grudgingly forced to believe that Lieberman will probably lose tomorrow. As I've said before, however, I don't think it's going to be a landslide, and I think he's going to win in November. Kos is making itself look silly by devoting all of it's time to this one race. Even more ironic is the fact that this race which has so galvanized this bastion of left-wing lunacy involves a Democratic incumbent. And you wonder why I don't think the Democratic Party can win back control of either house of Congress? They're simply too busy gnawing at their own limbs.