Kerry's VERY Uphill Battle

As I've mentioned before, I want nothing more than an Electoral College tie. In looking at the numerous scenarios in which the race could end in a tie, I've come to a very simple conclusioin: It doesn't matter what the national polls are showing right now...the race is all but over. What is astonishing to me is that I found perfectly credible ways for Bush to win the election even if he were to lose Pennsylvania, Michigan, AND Ohio. He leads in Ohio, is tied in Pennsylvania, and is very close in Michigan. The odds of winning at least one of the three are very high indeed. If he does, I see no way that Kerry will win the election. At this point, something major would need to happen to shift the midwest states that are leaning Bush-wards (Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Missouri, sort-of Minnesota) back to Kerry. Not to mention the bad-for-Kerry news that Maryland, New Jersey, Maine, Oregon, and New Mexico are all threatening to turn for the President.

The upshot of all of this is that Kerry is being forced to fight on his own turf, the equivelant of playing the game right up against his own end zone. A Hail Mary is likely all that can save his campaign; the first debate was a 5-yard rush up the middle.

Selected House Races

Congressional Quarterly and the New York Times are listing five races as "No Clear Favorite" in the House this year. Of those, four are currently held by Republicans, and two of the five for which polling data is not too hard to find indicate that they will likely go Democrat. The races are:


Colorado - 3: Greg Walcher (R) vs. John T. Salazar (D)

A seat currently in Republican hands, polling by Survey USA indicates this is Salazar's race to lose. He currently leads 52-40 as of 9/29.

Likely Democratic Takeover


Georgia - 12: Max Burns (R-inc) vs. John Barrow (D)

I have no polling data on this rate now, and so am forced to agree with CQ and continue to refer to this race as...

No Clear Favorite


Louisiana - 3: Billy Tauzin, III (R) vs. Craig Romero (R) vs. Kevin Chiasson (R) vs. Damon Baldone (D) vs. Degruise Caccioppi (D) vs. Charlie Melancon (D)

Thanks to Louisiana's "open primary," election day is always interesting. This seat is currently in the Republican hands of Tauzin's father, Billy Jr., who is retiring this year. Again, with no polling data to force my hand, I'm going to leave this as...

No Clear Favorite


New York - 27: Nancy Naples (R) vs. Brian Higgins (D)

Another Republican held seat in danger of switching hands. Again, no polling means...

No Clear Favorite


Utah - 2: Jim Matheson (D-inc) vs. John Swallow (R)

Why CQ would classify this as "No Clear Favorite" is beyond me. Perhaps they just assume Democrats can never win in Utah. The polls indicate otherwise, as Matheson leads 61-30 according to a Deseret news poll. The poll has a huge margin of error (5.5), but that big a lead is still significantly outside the margin.

Safe Democrat


I'll be putting up some more races that other sources consider tossups, along with some that the numbers are dictating are tossups whether or not the "experts" consider it to be the case.