Tennessee Primary Results

Governor
Phil Bredesen (D) was easily renominated, with 89% of the vote. His nearest opponent received just 7% (that was the inestimable John Jay Hooker, who was running for both Governor and Senator...quite the guy).

On the Republican side, Jim Bryson won an easy victory over his six opponents, with 50% of the vote. His nearest opponent was David Farmer, with 16%.

Senate
As expected, Harold Ford, Jr. had no trouble winning the Democratic primary in this race, receiving 79% of the race. Gary Davis was his closest competition, with just 10%. And John Hooker? The man may have dreamt big, but he received just 6% of the vote.

On the Republican side, I was waaayyyyy off. I projected a close three way race between Bob Corker, Ed Bryant, and Van Hilleary, with Hilleary eventually pulling out the win. Well...Hilleary actually finished 3rd, with just 17% of the vote. Things were a little closer between Corker and Bryant, but not much: Corker took 48% to Bryant's 34%, and is the nominee. This is going to be one of the most interesting races in the country this fall.

CD 1
It's much too close to call on the Republican side of things in this race, with 521 votes separating leader David Davis and trailer Richard Venable. Things would get really interesting if there were a runoff, because both received just 22% of the vote, so 56% of the electorate would be up for grabs. Instead, there will probably be a recount and all that jazz, but Davis will almost certainly come out on top.

For the Democrats, 40% voted for Rick Trent, good enough to hand him the nomination. The biggest problem for the Dems is that there were about 17,500 votes cast on the Democratic side, and about 73,000 cast on the Republican side, a HUGE disparity that indicates the Dems goose is cooked come General Election time.

CD 2
Congressman John Duncan (R) easily won against Ralph McGill, 87%-13%. The Democratic race was much closer, with John Greene prevailing over Robert Scott 54%-46%. Once again, the numbers are telling...almost 63,000 Republican votes against just 17,500 Democratic votes. Duncan is safe.

CD 3
Congressman Zach Wamp (R) swatted away those gnats who were challenging him in the primary, taking 87% of the vote. His nearest opponents had just 5%. For the Democrats, a very close race resulted in a victory for Brent Benedict over Terry Stulce, 51%-49%.

CD 4
Congressman Lincoln Davis (D) made like his Republican buddies in other Tennessee districts and easily surived his primary, taking 86% of the vote. On the other side, Ken Martin (R) took 41%, with Alan Pedigo taking 31% and Don Strong clocking in with 27%. Martin will get the chance to lose to Davis in November, as this is a mirror image of the Republican districts; perfectly safe for the incumbent.

CD 5
Congressman Jim Cooper (D) took 92% of the vote on the way to being renominated for his office. His opponent in November will be Thomas Kovach (R), who was unopposed.

CD 6
Congressman Bart Gordeon (D) also took 92% of the vote. He will face Republican David R. Davis (not the same as the Davis who is the presumptive Republican nominee in CD 2) in November.

CD 7
Bill Morrison (D) took 60% of the vote on his way to winning the nomination over Randy Morris. Morrison will face Congressman Marsha Blackburn (R) in November.

CD 8
John Farmer (R) easily won his primary against Rory Bricco, 71%-29%, and will face Congressman John Tanner (D) in November.

CD 9
With 31% of the vote in a crowded, 15-person primary field, Steve Cohen won the Democratic battle to replace Congressman Harold Ford, Jr., who is running for Senate. His opponent will be Mark White (R), who took 63% of the Republican vote.

Double-Digit Lamont Lead

The story can be found here.

The only reason I'm posting on this is because of a quote in the article, howere. Here goes:

Lieberman recently called on President Clinton to visit the state on his behalf, and Clinton's endorsement has been used in the campaign's televised ads. But that apparently had little effect on voters; of those who supported Lieberman, 78 percent said Clinton was not a reason for their support.

Now, I just want to throw something out there...if 22% of your support is even partly because you made a particular move (such as bringing in Bill Clinton), then that was a pretty good move, no? You made a significant jump in your support by doing so. I'm not sure why 22% is considered to be "little effect," but then, hey, I'm not a member of the MSM either.

Lieberman

We're now 6 days away from the most fascinating primary of the season: the race to become the Democratic Senate nominee in Connecticut. If you don't know what I'm talking about, then you need to pay better attention.

From Daily Kos today comes the suggestion that if Lieberman loses on Tuesday, which is a distinct possibility, and then chooses to run as an independent (or "petitioning Democrat," as I believe is the technical term), that Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid would "have to" strip Lieberman of his committee seats. Uhhh...really?

This seems to me like a no-win scenario for Reid. Lieberman is the favorite in a three way race in November, so is it really a good idea for Reid to strip Lieberman of the committee spots when he in all likelihood will still be a Senator come January? Isn't that just begging Lieberman to stay an Independent and caucus with the Republicans, just making things that much harder for the Dems?

Ned Lamont may win on Tuesday, but I have yet to be convinced that Lieberman is vulnerable come November, and there is very little evidence that Lieberman is going to just lay down and give up his seat to an upstart like Lamont, who is a creation of the so-called netroots. Perhaps if Lieberman has his clock cleaned, he'll give up the race. But this strikes me as a 51-49 type thing, and if that happens there would be no reason for Lieberman to drop out.

Finally, for those of you who think Lieberman should "listen to the voice of his party," I say screw that. If Lieberman would win a statewide election without the party, and the party turns it's back on him, he has every right to run as an independent. Losing a primary does not and should not prevent someone from getting on the ballot in November, especially when, like Lieberman, you have essentially been ambushed by a disaffected, but very vocal, segment of the party. Perhaps I feel this way because I am not strongly attached to either party, but I see the primary as good for one thing and one thing only, and that is getting the little (D) or (R) next to your name on the ballot (my apologies to the (L), (G), and (Rf)'s of the world). The two parties do not have the sole right to having access to the ballot.

For the record, I'm supporting Lieberman over Lamont in this race. There is such vitriol towards Lieberman, and while I don't think he's a particularly strong Senator, I also don't think he's any worse than most of the other yahoo's who are in office. Lamont hasn't convinced me that he's anything more than a novelty candidate. Of course, my support comes in the form of election-night rooting and nothing else; I would never, ever give money for a race like this even if I had it to give. Also, part of me really likes it when the fella's over at Daily Kos suffer a loss in a race that they so badly want to win. Does that make me a bad person?

Cynthia McKinney

I admit, I find this race absolutely fascinating. McKinney, best known as the Congresswoman from Georgia who slapped a police officer who had the temerity not to recognize her when she tried to bypass the security station at an entrance to a Congressional office building, is in a fight for her political life against Hank Johnson. The papers are abuzz with this race, and here's an example.

McKinney seems to me to be the kind of nutjob that isn't particularly dangerous in Congress (who's going to actually listen to her, really?), but who doesn't by any means belong there. I'm rooting against her not because I know anything about her opponent, but because defeating her will eliminate an ineffective, screeching looney from the halls of Congress. If Hank Johnson does his job and pulls this out next Tuesday, he will be in all reality the Congressman-elect (I gather Republicans don't do too well in this part of Georgia). That's good news for everybody, even if he turns out to be a liberal idealogue. I'd rather have a sane partisan than a crazy nutjob in Congress any day.

Kansas Primary Results

Governor
State Senator Jim Barnett, the front-runner only simply because he was the only one of the 7 candidates seeking the nomination, did in fact win the primary last night with 36% of the vote. His closest opponent was Ken Canfield with 26%. That means Barnett will face the very popular Kathleen Sebelius in November, and will almost certainly lose.

CD 3
The competition dropped out of the race and no primary was actually needed for this district. Republican Chuck Ahner will face Congressman Dennis Moore (D) in November.

CD 4
The battle to find a challenger for Congressman Todd Tiahrt (R) is too close to call, and was an amazingly close 4-way race. Garth McGinn received 38 more votes than Ronald Voth (28%-27%), which is obviously much too close to call. Recounts and all the other shenanigans will undoubtedly ensue. Marty Mork received 24% and Patrick Quaney 21% in this race, so clearly no one candidate was really able to establish themselves. That's probably very good news for Tiahrt, who undoubtedly will win this race regardless of which Democrat finds himself the candidate.

This Week's Primaries

I can't say "Tuesday's Primaries" this week, because Tennessee has its primary on Thursday. Since I wanted to cover both in one post, I'm just referring to them this way.

Kansas Governor
Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D) is unopposed in the primaries, and will be watching to see who will face off against her. The Republicans have an incredibly crowded field facing off on Tuesday to determine who her opponent will be. With no runoff in Kansas, the winner need only receive the most votes, rather than having to worry about reaching 50%. The only current office-holder in the race is State Senator Jim Barnett. Also running are Ken Canfield, Rex Crowell, Dennis Hawver, Robin Jennison, Tim Pickel, and Richard Rodewald. I'm going to predict that Barnett wins, but I really have absolutely no basis for that prediction, as I don't have money numbers for these candidates.

Kansas CD 3
Congressman Dennis Moore (D) is unopposed, but there are 4 Republicans fighting for the right to face him. With $309,000 in the bank, Chuck Ahner has to be considered the front runner. He will be facing off against Thomas Scherer, Scott Schwab, and Paul Showen.

Kansas CD 4
Congressman Todd Tiahrt (R) is unopposed, and is watching 4 Democrats beat each other up to face him. For two of them, there is no financial data available, while the other two have made negligible amounts of cash, so again I have no idea who should be considered the front runner. The candidates are Garth McGinn, Marty Mork, Patrick Quaney, and Ronald Voth.

Tennessee Governor
Governor Phil Bredesen (D) faces three primary opponents in John Jay Hooker, Tim Sevier, and Walt Ward. Since Bredesen has a 62% approval rating, I doubt that he has anything at all to worry about in this race.

On the Republican side, State Senator Jim Bryson is the only office-holder running. He faces off against a massive field of opponents, including Mark Albertini, Wayne Bailey, David Farmer, Joe Kirkpatrick, Tim Thomas, and Wayne Young. With no financial data available, I'm again going to predict success for the current office-holder, and project that Bryson will win. As in Kansas, there is no runoff in Tennessee, so the candidates must receive the most votes on Thursday.

Tennessee Senate
With Republican Majority Leader Bill Frist retiring from office (presumably to run for President), there is an interesting race to replace him. On the Republican side, a ton of money has been spent on this race. Bob Corker has over $5 million in his campaign fund, but much of that is presumably his own money. Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary both have over $2 million. Also in the running is Tate Harrison, for whom no financial report is available. It doesn't really matter, since he doesn't have a chance. I think it's a very close three way race, but I'm going to project Hilleary as the winner.

On the Democratic side, Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. is the presumed nominee. He has made over $6 million for this race, and whichever Republican emerges from the thicket will have a significant challenge in November. Ford still has some business to take care of, however, as there are 4 other Democrats vying for a chance to get into the Senate. Gary Davis, John Jay Hooker (the same one running for Governor), Charles Smith, and Alvin Strauss are the other challengers for the race.

Tennessee CD 1
Congressman William Jenkins (R) is retiring, and there are a large number of candidates to replace him. On the Republican side, a ridiculous 13 candidates are running, and the money is widely spread out amongst them. Richard Roberts, with $890,000 in the bank, has to be considered the favorite. With between $200,000 and $406,000 are Richard Venable, Vance Cheek, Jr., David Davis, David Roe, and James Waters. Finally, in the "nothing or very little available" category are Peggy Barnett, Colquitt Brackett, Bill Breeding, Jr., Claude Cox, Jon Grose, Douglas Heinsohn, and Danny Smith. How this many candidates end up running, I have no idea. I assume that if the state party was a bit more disciplined this wouldn't happen.

On the Democratic side, there are 4 challengers. Joel Goodman, an actor, is facing Richard Howell, Rick Trent, and Dennis Whaley. I'll give the edge to the actor, but I really have no idea. The highest amount of cash reported in this race is $6,000 for Howell, so whoever wins is going to lose big to the Republican in November.

Tennessee CD 2
Congressman John Duncan, Jr. (R) faces a pretty paltry challenge from Ralph McGill, who has raised just 1/100th of the cash. Duncan will win easily. On the Democratic side, John Greene faces Bob Scott, with no favorite.

Tennessee CD 3
Congressman Zach Wamp (R) has raised nearly a million dollars, but has to swat away three gnats who are challenging him in this primary: June Griffin, Charles Howard, and Doug Vadagriff. Wamp need not worry. On the other side, Terry Stulce faces Brent Benedict. Stulce has raised $57,000, while Benedict has no financial data available, so I'll give the edge to Stulce.

Tennessee CD 4
Congressman Lincoln Davis (D) faces two minor challengers in this primary: Norma Cartwright and Harvey Howard. Davis will win easily. On the Republican side, Alan Pedigo, Ken Martin, and Don Strong face off. Pedigo has $52,000 in the bank and the other have no available financial data, so I give Pedigo the edge.

Tennessee CD 5
Congressman Jim Cooper (D) faces a minor challenge from Jason Pullias that won't be a problem for him. He will face Republican Thomas Kovach in November.

Tennessee CD 6
Congressman Bart Gordon (D) faces a minor challenge from J. Patrick Lyons that he'll win easily. He will face David Davis (R) in November.

Tennessee CD 7
Congressman Marsha Blackburn does not have an opponent in the primary, and will sit back and watch Randy Morris and Bill Morrison fight for the Democratic nomination.

Tennessee CD 8
Congressman John Tanner (D) has no opponent in the primary, and so will get to relax on Thursday as Republicans Rory Bricco and John Farmer battle for the nomination.

Tennessee CD 9
With Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. (D) giving up this seat to run for Senate, there are a ton of Democrats fighting to replace him. Here are the 15 challengers, in alphabetical order: Jesse Blumenfeld, Julian Bolton, State Senator Steve Cohen, Joe Ford, Jr., Ruben Fort, Lee Harris, Joseph Kyles, Marvell Mitchell, Tyson Pratcher, Ron Redwing, Ed Stanton III, Nikki Tinker, Joe Towns, Jr., Ralph White, and Bill Whitman. Nikki Tinker has made by far the most money, so I'm going to give her the edge.

On the Republican side there are 5 challengers: Derrick Bennett, Rudolph Daniels, Tom Guleff, Cecil Hale, and Hoyt White. White has made the most money, so I'll give him the edge.

Oklahoma Primary Results

As I promised, results that any of you could have picked up from multiple sources while I was gone (but hey, it's fun to pretend I have a readership that has been desperately craving this information)...

Governor
On the Democratic side, Governor Brad Henry easily was renominated, beating his opponent, Andrew Marr, Jr., 86%-14%.

Republicans nominated Congressman Ernest Istook, as expected. Istook received 58% of the vote, with Bob Sullivan the closest challenger at 31%. Neither of the other two stooges...er, candidates...received more than 10% of the vote.

Oklahoma CD 1
As expected, John Sullivan (R) easily cruised to the nomination, receiving 83% of the vote. He will face Alan Gentges (D) in November.

Oklahoma CD 2
Patrick Miller (R) won 72% of the vote, and will face Congressman Dan Boren (D) in November.

Oklahoma CD 3
Sue Barton (D) took out her two opponents, receiving 53% of the vote, and will face Congressman Frank Lucas (R) in November.

Oklahoma CD 5
With Congressman Ernest Istook (R) running for Governor, this seat was wide open, and as a result 6 Republicans were vying for the right to get on the ballot in November. Not surprisingly, none of them received the necessary 50% required for the nomination, and so there will be a runoff on August 22 between the top two vote-getters. One of the names is surprising, the other is not. First, Lieutenant Governor Mary Fallin, who had raised the second most amount of money and obviously has name recognition as a statewide office-holder, received nearly 35% of the vote, easily beating her challengers. However, the top money-raiser in this race was Corporation Commissioner Denise Bode, with over $1 million in the bank. It didn't help her, as she came in third with 19% of the vote. Instead, Fallin will face Mick Cornett in August, after Cornett received 24% of the vote in the primary.

The Democratic side was more decisive, with David Hunter receiving 63% of the vote. He will face either Fallin or Cornett in November.