Key Senate Races Update

Democrats need to gain 6 seats in November if they are to take control of the Senate. It's a nearly impossible task, but there are possibilities. Here are the 10 races that I view as the most vital to Democratic chances in November, starting with the most essential to the effort.

#1 - Pennsylvania: Rick Santorum (R-inc) v. Bob Casey, Jr. (D)
There's a more complete analysis of the state of this race in a previous post from today. I rate this as the most important race for the Democrats because it is the "easiest pickings." Casey has led in every poll that has come out this summer, and Santorum hasn't yet started to come back significantly in the race (in fact, the most recent poll, conducted by USA Today, has Casey leading by a whopping 18 points). Put simply, if Santorum wins this race, it's going to be a long night for the Dems.

#2 - Ohio: Mike DeWine (R-inc) v. Sherrod Brown (D)
Very similar to Pennsylvania in terms of import for the Dems. DeWine is an embattled Republican in a state that isn't exactly in love with Republicans at the moment. That probably explains why the quite liberal Brown has consistently led this race, leading by an average of 5.7 points in the Real Clear Politics average, and having not trailed in the race since June poll by Rasmussen.

#3 - Rhode Island: Lincoln Chafee (R-inc) v. Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
Or at least, it will be Chafee if he miraculously survives a very tough primary challenge against Stephen Laffey, which is looking unlikely. Chafee is a certified RINO (Republican in Name Only), while Laffey is a conservative dream. If Laffey wins the primary, he'll be crushed by Whitehouse in the General, because Rhode Island is . . . how to put it . . . a tad liberal. Chafee might be able to beat Whitehouse if he survives this Tuesday (the polls are much too close to call), but this is a must-win for any reasonable strategy the Dems have to take the Senate.

#4 - Montana: Conrad Burns (R-inc) v. Jon Tester (D)
I didn't believe that Burns was really vulnerable until it became clear that Republicans throughout the West are struggling, and in surprising places. Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Kansas, Colorado . . . all are flirting with Democrats in places where that would have been unthinkable 10 years ago. What's amazing is that the polling indicates that Tester is in the lead, albeit narrowly. Even when polls are within the margin of error, if several of them in a row indicate that one candidate is ahead of the other, then that's probably legitimate. Burns appears old and out-of-touch, and this race is a great pickup opportunity for the Dems.

#5 - Missouri: Jim Talent (R-inc) v. Claire McCaskill (D)
Talent has been unable to put much distance between himself and McCaskill this summer. The RCP average has him leading the race slightly, and I think he's going to win in November, but McCaskill is a sturdy challenger. For Dems to pull off the upset and take the Senate, this race probably needs to go to McCaskill, but of the Republican incumbents whom I have already mentioned, Talent is by far the most likely to find a way to win another term. I'm guessing he wins by 4-6%.

#6 - Tennessee: Bob Corker (R) v. Harold Ford, Jr. (D)
This is Bill Frist's (R) seat, and he's retiring. Corker was the clear leader in this race from January to early August, but a series of corruption charges (not to mention charges of inefficiency as a Mayor) have brought him back to the pack. Ford is a highly charismatic political figure (he was Barack Obama before there was a Barack Obama), and he has a chance to pick up this seat for the Dems.

#7 - Virginia: George Allen, Jr. (R-inc) v. James Webb (D)
Talk about sticking your foot in your mouth. Allen was ready to sail to re-election when he made the infamous "macaca" remarks regarding a Webb aide. That, along with increasing scrutiny of his potential connections with leaders of the modern-day White Supremacy movement, have led many young voters to desert him. The result? His lead has gone from well into the double digits to between 3-5, and Zogby Interactive even has Webb leading by a point. In other words, this is now a race. Just like the Pennsylvania race will be a litmus test determing whether the Democrats are going to have a long night, this race will be a great test of Democratic potency. If Webb wins, an avalanche could be about to fall all over the Republicans.

#8 - New Jersey: Robert Menendez (D-inc) v. Thomas Kean, Jr. (R)
I've thought since early this year that Kean was the Republican best poised to pull off an upset and steal a Democratic seat. Well, alright, I gave Mark Kennedy in Minnesota a great shot to do the same, until the polling data came in and demonstrated that he's a bit of a non-starter for my home state. But Kean is in great shape against Menendez, with polls indicating that he leads by 4-5 points (oddly enough, the only recent poll showing Menendez with the lead is a Republican funded poll). Obviously, for the Democrats to actually pull off taking over the Senate, they can't afford to put themselves in a hole by losing seats they already control. This would be an embarrasing and stinging loss for the Party, and like Pennsylvania and Virginia could be a solid indicator of how the night will go. One cautionary tale: this race seems to be very much being run on local issues, so it might not be as much of an indicator as it at first appears. I could easily see Kean winning, but Democrats doing very well nationally anyway.

#9 - Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar (D) v. Mark Kennedy (R)
At one time, this Democratic seat would have been high on the list of those that were significant. However, Klobuchar has led from the start by between 5-10 points, with no signs of coming back to Kennedy. Democrats can't get complacent, however; they need to secure this seat, because it has the potential of becoming competitive again thanks to Minnesota's fickle electorate.

#10 - Connecticut: Joe Lieberman (I-Inc) v. Ned Lamont (D)
With no Republican involved in this race, how can it rate my top 10? The answer lies in the damage that Democrats could do to themselves here. First off, by nominating Ned Lamont and setting up Lieberman's independent run, the Dems assured that significant amounts of money would be spent here, where nothing good can happen (in terms of net seats controlled), rather than in the competitive races listed above. Second, Democrats could really shoot themselves in the foot. If they alienate Lieberman too much, he may refuse to caucus with them, thus costing them a vital seat. It would be tremendously ironic if the Dems were to gain six seats, only to have Lieberman chose to spite them and caucus with the Republicans, thus handing the GOP the majority much as Jim Jeffords did for Democrats a few years ago.

Terror Warnings as Politics?

Eric Boehlert, writing in The Nation, could be right when he says that Republicans are playing politics with the terror threat level, and that the media is uncritically repeating whatever the government says on this topic. Or, there could be terrorists out there who would love nothing more than to kill Americans. Considering everything that's happened over the last five years, I'd lead towards the latter.

This is not to excuse the Bush Administration completely. They almost certainly are playing politics with this information to a degree. I have a few thoughts on that, though. First, if they are fabricating information, or providing intelligence and then explaining it in public in a manner that is completely disconnected from how they view it themselves, then they are violating the public trust. No one will ever effectively call them on this (certainly not Eric Boehlert), although a Democratic Congress (which may be a reality in early January) might take a stab at it. This would be shameful behavior if it's going on, but not having access to the "real" intelligence meetings, there's not much I can say about this subject beyond the hypothetical.

Next, if they are providing information that is accurate, or mostly accurate, and are withholding only information that is deemed to sensitive to release publically, then I don't care about their political purpose. They are, after all, politicians. They're in the business of winning elections. Democrats shouldn't be afraid of this; Americans will vote for whomever they feel will most protect them, assuming that they are voting on security issues. And this is the ultimate crux of my argument. Why are Democrats so convinced that Republicans can make political hay by releasing information about terrorist plots? If the Democratic Party had a legitimate foreign policy/terror containment plan, would they be so concerned about this? Of course not. In the view of most Americans, the Bush Administration has been ineffective. People want change. But they aren't going to just hand the keys to the country over to a Democratic Congress if there is no substance behind the Democratic Party.

Bottom Line: If you're a Democrat and you're afraid of Republicans pulling political shenanigans with terrorist alerts and intelligence, then stop whining about it and defuse the issue by coming up with a plan that will make Americans want you in office protecting them instead of re-electing Republicans.

Pennsylvania Senate Race

This intriguing battle between Senator Rick Santorum (R) and Bob Casey, Jr. (D) presents one of the best pick-up chances for the Dems this year. Santorum has been trailing in the polls almost from the start, but that doesn't mean this thing is over. I've mentioned before that Casey is a pro-life, pro-war, pro-gun Democrat. In other words, he's far, far apart from the majority of his party. As a result, there is an understandable reticence amongst many Pennsylvania Democrats regarding his candidacy. Add to that the fact that Santorum is historically a strong closer, and you understand why this race is far from done.

I'm bringing this up now because I finally got around to watching last Sunday's Meet the Press, which featured a debate between Santorum and Casey. Keep in mind: having lived in Pennsylvania and having been represented by Santorum, I have some knowledge of the man. I quite honestly can't stand him. I think he's a horrible Senator, and I think he's far outside the Pennsylvania political norm. That said, Casey was so horrifically BAD on Meet the Press, and has run such a lackluster campaign, that I probably would sit this one out instead of voting for him.

I'm not going to give a play-by-play of the discussion, but I will give general impressions. Casey is not particularly articulate. He misses the point a lot. As an example, he spent a significant amount of time haranguing Santorum for disagreeing with Dick Cheney on whether to sanction Iran, and suggesting that Santorum would never tell Cheney to his face that the two were in disagreement. Santorum sliced him up by pointing out that he had stood up and discussed the topic at length on the floor of the Senate, so his feelings weren't exactly hidden. Throughout the whole exchange, I found myself saying "what the heck is the point, here?" This was not an uncommon position for me to be in. Quite frankly, these are both horrible candidates. The people of Pennsylvania deserve better. Unfortunately, the DSCC failed to find a stronger, better candidate, and instead the people of Pennsylvania will be stuck either with the incumbent nutcase or the dry, boring as Al Gore on dramamine challenger.

This is the first prediction on a close race that I'm going to throw out there, and I'm coming down on the side of Casey. Santorum will make this interesting, but Casey will hang on for a narrow victory in this race that the Democrats need if they have any hope of taking control of the Senate.

Florida Primary Results

Florida Governor
Attorney General Charlie Crist (R) was the easy victor in the Republican primary, garnering 64% of the votes. His opponent will be Congressman Jim Davis, III (D), who failed to reach the magical 50% mark in securing the nomination. He ended up with 47.4%, compared to 41.1% for Rod Smith, his nearest competitor. This should be an interesting race in November.

Florida Senate
The marquee race of the night was the Republican Senate primary, and Congressman Katherine Harris won, as expected. She received 49.4% of the vote, with Will McBride picking up just 30% as her nearest competitor. Florida Republicans should be embarrassed for voting for this train-wreck of a candidate (and candidacy), and this result virtually guarantees that Senator Bill Nelson (D), who was unopposed in the primary, will sail to re-election in November.

Florida CD 5
John T. Russell (D) picked up the nomination by securing 48.8% of the vote, with Rick Penberthy (who I had declared the favorite based on scant evidence) picking up 39%. Russell will face Congressman Virginia Brown-Waite (R) in November.

Florida CD 8
Congressman Ric Keller (R) faced a surprisingly vigorous primary challenge from the supremely under-funded Elizabeth Doran (he had a staggering 25-1 edge in money raised, although he probably didn't spend much of it on the primary), winning the battle 72.5%-27.5%. His opponent will be Charlie Stuart, who picked up 47.7% to beat out 2 challengers.

Florida CD 9
Gus Bilirakis (R) picked up 82% of the vote in securing the nomination to try to replace his father, who is retiring, in this district. His opponenent will be Phyllis Busansky (D), who is well-funded and should put up a solid fight.

Florida CD 11
Kathy Castor (D) picked up 53.9% of the vote on her way to securing the nomination, not bad since she was facing 4 opponents. Castor is trying to replace newly minted Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Jim Davis, III in this district. Her opponent in November will be Eddie Adams, Jr. (R), who appears to be highly underfunded and very likely to lose.

Florida CD 13
The race to replace Republican Senate candidate Katherine Harris (R) in this district was highly unsettled, and Vern Buchanan won a wild 5-way race with just 32.3% of the vote. Proving that money doesn't guarantee results, George Hudson raised well over $1 million (far less than Buchanan's $3.8 million, by the way), but couldn't even finish second; that honor went to Nancy Detert with 24.4%. Hudson picked up 24%, if you were curious. With the Republicans in such disarray, the Democrats were relatively united in picking Christine Jennings, giving her 61.8% of the vote.

Florida CD 15
In a close race, Bob Bowman (D) beat out John M. Kennedy 54.5%-45.5%, and will face Congressman Dave Weldon (R) in November.

Florida CD 17
Congressman Kendrick Meek (D) easily won his primary, picking up 89% of the vote. Since the Republicans have no one running in November, Meek just won himself another term.

Florida CD 24
In another race that proves money doesn't mean everything, Democrats nominated Clint Curtis over Andy Michaud by a total of 61.2%-38.8%, despite Michaud's big edge in money ($175K to $25K). Curtis now has a much bigger challenge, however, as he has to face Congressman Tom Feeney (R) in November. Feeney will win easily, unless Curtis really is some kind of dragon-slayer; that seems rather unlikely.

Tuesday's Primary

The lone primary on the day after labor day is in Florida. This is a warm-up for next week, when most of the states that haven't yet held primaries will finish up (one notable exception being Hawaii, where there is an intense Senate primary battle developing). Here are the Florida races.

Florida Governor
With Governor Jeb Bush (R) retiring, there is an interesting battle developing on both sides of the political divide to try to replace him. On the Republican side, Attorney General Charlie Crist is the presumed favorite, with Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher in contention. Vernon Palmer and Michael St. Jean are also running, but Crist or Gallagher will be the nominee. For the Democrats, Congressman Jim Davis, III is the most prominent name, with State Senator Rod Smith also running. Non-politicians in the race include Glenn Burkett, Carol Castagnero, and John Crotty. I'll give Davis the edge.

Florida Senate
Senator Bill Nelson (D) is unopposed in the primary. The Republicans are in disarray, with infamous Congressman Katherine Harris leading the polling in this race. Her numbers against Nelson are horrendous, however, and Harris has emerged as a complete whack job, so there is a possibility that support will drift to one of her opponents: Will McBride, Peter Monroe, or LeRoy Collins, Jr. I can't imagine why anyone would vote for Harris, but it sure looks like she's going to win, in spite of everything. Nelson has become one of the safest Senators facing re-election this year thanks to Harris, and that probably isn't going to change even if Harris now loses on Tuesday.

Florida CD 5
Congressman Virginia Brown-Waite (R) is unopposed, but three Democrats are lining up to challenge her. Their names are Richard Penberthy, John T. Russell, and David Werder. None has a significant lead in money (although Werder seems to trail significantly), so I'll give the edge to Penberthy.

Florida CD 8
Congressman Ric Keller (R) has raised $1 million, so I don't think he's that afraid of Elizabeth Doran and her $40,000 war chest; he should cruise to the nomination. On the Democratic side, there are actually some big-money players, as both Charlie Stuart and Alan Grayson have raised over $500,000, and Homer Hartage has raise nearly $150,000. My guess is Stuart will win on Tuesday.

Florida CD 9
Congressman Mike Bilirakis (R) is retiring in November, and there is a two-way race in the Republican camp to replace him. The almost certain nominee is his son, Gus Bilirakis, who has raised $1.8 million. He faces Dave Langheier, who has a repectable but comparatively paltry $150,000 in the bank. The winner will face Democrat Phyllis Busansky and her $817,000 in November.

Florida CD 11
Congressman Jim Davis, III (D) is running for Governor, and five Dems are fighting to replace him in this district. The front runner, with nearly $1 million in the bank, is Kathy Castor. She faces serious challenges from Al Fox, Jr., Les Miller, Jr., and Scott Thomas Farrell (presumably NOT a junior). Mike Steinberg is also running. The Republicans have already settled on candidate Eddie Adams, Jr., but with just $20,000 raised, he doesn't pose much of a threat. The identity of the next Congressman in the Florida 11th will be decided Tuesday.

Florida CD 13
Congressman Katherine Harris (R) is running for the Senate, leading to a crazy scramble amongst Republicans to replace her. With $3.8 million raised, Vern Buchanan is far and away the favorite. George Hudson has taken in $1.18 million himself, and can't be discounted, however. Nancy Detert, Mark Flanagan, and Donna Clarke are also running for the Republican nomination. On the Democratic side, Christine Jennings has over a 4-1 lead in money over Jan Schneider, and should win the nomination.

Florida CD 15
Congressman Dave Weldon (R) is unopposed. His opponent will be either Bob Bowman or John M. Kennedy, neither of whom has raised significant money.

Florida CD 17
Republicans aren't even bothering to contest this district, where Congressman Kendrick Meek (D) faces poorly funded challenger Dufirstson Neree (D). Meek will be renominated easily.

Florida CD 24
Congressman Tom Feeney (R) is unopposed. The Democrats have two choices, Andy Michaud (with $175 K) or Clint Curtis (with $25 K). Michaud will win on Tuesday and lose big in November.