Giuliani's In (Sort Of)

Rudy Giuliani has filed the paperwork to form a Presidential Exploratory Committee. In other words, he's running for President. It's possible that Giuliani could scoot around the country for a few months, give a few speeches, raise some money, and then decide not to actually make a run. I don't think that's going to happen, however, and his presence in the race should make things interesting. I think that the only chance anyone not named John McCain has of winning the Republican nomination is if Giuliani stays in the race and takes early support away from McCain amongst moderate voters. If Giuliani doesn't run, I think McCain is by far the most likely candidate to emerge from the field. I'll talk more about why later, but suffice it to say that every candidate who has been mentioned on the Republican side has something "wrong" with them - either they are too moderate to pick up the base, or too conservative to get anybody but the base, or *gasp* they're Mormon (that would be Mitt Romney, who may find out whether or not conservative voters require their presidential candidates to be Protestants). Giuliani is, I think, unlikely to win the nomination barring some sort of groundswell in support, but he's still the most important piece of the puzzle because of what his presence on the ballot means. Should be interesting to watch unfold.

Just Fabulous

Know what happens if you try searching for "Arabian Gulf," which happens to be the body of water most of us would call the Persian Gulf? Click Here to see the page that comes out on top in a google search, thanks to some clever Google Bombing.

Pelosi Back Murtha

In a move that surprises me a great deal, Speaker-to-be Nancy Pelosi has publically declared her support for John Murtha (PA) over Steny Hoyer (MD) for the Majority Leader position in the House. The move is surprising not because of Pelosi's actual support for Murtha - that was expected considering that Hoyer has been a bit of a gadfly for Pelosi - but for the public nature of the announcement. Pelosi's move is a bit risky, because there is a significant amount of support for Hoyer. If Murtha doesn't win the race, Pelosi will have demonstrated that she doesn't have nearly as much control over her caucus as Dennis Hastert (IL) has had since becoming Speaker, and that won't bode well for the ability of the Democrats to present a unified front against President Bush over the next two years. It will be interesting to see how this race comes out on Thursday.

Feingold Bows Out

Fresh off the news that Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack is running for president, another oft-named possible candidate has decided not to. Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold (D), known as a severe critic of the Bush Administration, made his decision this weekend after seriously considering running. Many anti-war and far left elements were interested in a Feingold candidacy, but they will now need to look elsewhere for a candidate that shares their views.

The biggest winner from this announcement is probably Hillary Clinton. She has increasingly become the inter-party focus of anti-war elements in the Democratic Party, and it's very likely that with a candidate like Feingold on the primary ballot, she would have lost some key votes, possibly enough to tip the scales in favor of a Barack Obama or John Edwards.

The biggest losers are those who want a strong anti-war option on the primary ballot, even if that person is unlikely to win. Someone in the primary will almost certainly run against the war, but Feingold was probably the best positioned person to do that seriously, being a Senator with a strong record of opposition to the war. Until someone else steps up, those inclined to base their vote on the war will have to cast their net widely searching for a new standard-bearer.

I suspect that all eyes will be on Al Gore - if he runs, he would be well-positioned to take the anti-war vote (along with the environmental vote), and it would be interesting to see how he would stack up to Clinton, Obama, and Edwards in a four-way race.