Toward a National Primary?

UPDATE: Great minds think alike? Well, I won't call my mind great, but Peter Brown and I both came to the same conclusion from the news that several large states are considering moving their primaries to February. His article is titled "A de facto National Primary," and I thought I should mention it to avoid plaigiarism charges. My original post is below.


For years, Iowa and New Hampshire have served as the kickoff events of the Presidential election cycle. Both states have done everything in their power to keep it that way, however absurd the notion may seem to those of us who think that Iowa and New Hampshire aren't particularly representative of the rest of the country, and therefore get significantly more importance in the process than they deserve. Meanwhile, many big money states such as California and Florida have sat on the sidelines (California, with it's June primary, moreso than Florida). That may be changing.

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and the state legislature are in agreement that the state should play a bigger role in selecting Presidential candidates, and so are targeting a February primary date. In a move sure to give campaign manager's headaches, several other states, including Florida, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Missouri are contemplating similar moves.

All of this leads me to wonder one thing: Are we destined for a national primary day, or something close to it, not so much because the parties decide that it's a good idea, but because the selfish (and I'm not using that word pejoratively) interests of each State will cause them to move up their primaries? The parties can try to preven this, but I suspect that the days of May and June primaries, at the least, will soon be over. I leave it as an open question who these moves would help - although the CW is that it would be Clinton and McCain, the two best financed and most established candidates in the race. It will be interesting to watch this develop over the next few months as the candidates spin their wheels trying to find traction nearly two years before the election.

Long Time Away

First it was finals, then it was a visit home, and then the start of the new semester. With all of that, and my primary devotion to my Twins blog, this poor little blog has been neglected of late. Really, that's a shame - there has been a lot of political news, what with the start of the new congress and all of that.

For the few who actually check this blog on occassion, let me say this - I intend to continue posting on occassion, but it will probably be very infrequent. Things will build up over the next year as we approach the primary season, and my desire to write about politics will increase the closer we get. Until then, entries will probably be pretty sporadic.

For now, let me just put up my early thoughts on the 2008 Presidential race:

Democrats
As much excitement as there has been over Barack Obama in some circles, this is Hillary's race to lose. She has the experience and the gravitas - Obama has the charm. While I would love to see a few other names (Edwards, Richardson, even Gore) emerge as legitimate possibilities, I think this will come down to Hillary v. Obama by the end of February, 2008. Expect Hillary's superior organization and money to be the difference maker.

Republicans
The conventional wisdom is that McCain is the guy - but I'm all about questioning the CW. That's why I think the nominee is going to be Rudy Giuliani, who is polling well in the completely meaningless polls that have been conducted thus far. This pick gives me a two-for in opposing the CW - it lets me pick against McCain, and it lets me pick a guy who the CW says can't no-way, no-how win Republican primaries. McCain is ultimately going to be hurt by his fierce hawkishness, and while I think he'll be a force to be reckoned with all the way to the end of the race, I don't think he'll be able to seal the deal with enough voters to secure the nomination. A dark horse like Huckabee could end up emerging, I suppose, but I think the support is going to go to Giuliani (in a version of the "pick the nationally electable figure" dance).